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Research papers

From stream to structure

This paper describes the use of computerised topic analysis to segment and analyse tweets by US presidential election candidates in 2016. The statistical technique used to create the topic is called Latent Dirichlet Analysis (LDA). The paper shows...

Catalogue: Big Data World 2016: Understanding People Through Smart Data
Author: Andrew Jeavons
November 18, 2016

Research reports

Making public polling matter in Georgia

In 2012 Georgia held a Parliamentary election that was unique for the country: an intense campaign with an organized single opposition party. The results of published pre-election polls differed widely from each other and the final result, and were...

Catalogue: ESOMAR Codes And Guidelines
Authors: ESOMAR B.V., WAPOR B.V., Kathy Frankovic, Michael Traugott, Miroslawa Grabowska, Emmanuel Rivière
June 15, 2013

Magazines

Research World (June 2002)

The unexpected success of Jean-Marie Le Pen in the first round of France’s recent Presidential election came as a shock for not only the nation’s politicians but its pollsters. As elsewhere, political opinion polling constitutes only a...

Catalogue: Research World 2002
Author: ESOMAR B.V.
June 1, 2002

Research papers

The contribution of qualitative research to the presidential campaign of Vicente Fox

Within the framework of theoretical and methodological reflection about the discussion group, this paper describes how qualitative research was used in the campaign of Vicente Fox, the new President of Mexico. Qualitative research provided the...

Catalogue: Latin America 2001
Authors: Guido Lara, Soledad Rojas
May 1, 2001

Magazines

Research World (December 2000)

Opinion pollsters enjoyed a remarkable spot in the limelight tracking polls are separate surveys conducted each night in the US presidential elections. Although the final results of the election were still unclear at the time of going to press with...

Catalogue: Research World 2000
Author: ESOMAR B.V.
December 1, 2000

Research papers

Sweden

The Swedish election 1985 produced a surprisingly strong finish for the small Liberal party in Sweden - 14,50% compared to 5,90% in the previous electron in 1982. The polls had kept the party in the 5 to 7% range until the weeks before the election...

Catalogue: Seminar 1986: Opinion Polls
Authors: Hans L. Zetterberg, Gunnar Andren
June 15, 1986

Research papers

The democracy of opinion polls

I would like to suggest that the polling industry should not agonise too much about getting elections wrong. Error may be good for you; an occasional disaster can be good for the industry and good for the public. If polls were to have too long a run...

Catalogue: Seminar 1986: Opinion Polls
Author: David Butler
June 15, 1986

Research papers

The don't know voters

The paper presents a model for investigating the don't know phenomenon in the elections. The model distinguishes four different types of don't know voters according to the way people are stopped or remain stopped in the elections. The testing of the...

Catalogue: Seminar 1986: Opinion Polls
Author: Paula Hirstiö-Snellman
Company: Gallup International Association
June 15, 1986

Research papers

The use and publication of polls in a democracy

Pre-elections polls have never before been so disqualified in Spain. It will need quite a few years of impeccable work and new favourable electoral conditions for the professional activity of public opinion researchers to recover the image and the...

Catalogue: Seminar 1986: Opinion Polls
Author: Ginés Garrido Alart
June 15, 1986