The paper deals with a detained investigation in the nature of the holiday planning process. The forecasting entities have to be holiday segments. It is comparible with forecasting sales for specific product attributes. At this specific level problems arise because a holiday has too many marketing relevant attributes which are highly interrelated and substantial unstable during the planning process. Other relevant methods, treating the planning process as a black box, like time series analysis will be tested when enough observations are available.
The evaluation of price expectations in consumer sentiment surveys is rather ambiguous. Time series in price expectations and time to buy from our continuous research in this field show that as long as prices can go up and can come down, people will try to beat higher prices of the future by buying now, and wait for lower prices in the future by postponing expenditure. Price expectations, generally speaking, can be different from price expectations of cars, houses, durables. Time to buy a house is compared with sales of houses in the late 70's. Trends, on new car sales in Holland, are related to time to buy a car in 1979 - 1982.
Marketing Managers all over the world are overloaded with an abundance of information data. This information "overkill" has its source not only in the computer department of an enterprise. A very large part of it is produced and distributed by Marketing Research Agencies themselves. In particular Panel Research Agencies produce at regular intervals volumes of computer data, crowding not only their own archives and desks but unfortunately also the heads of their clients. Instead of the lack of information known in the earlier stages of our history, high-volume data sources have been evolved today. Marketing Managers are desperately demanding assistance: it is not quantity, but quality of information that is needed. But out of the mass of information supplied Marketing Management wants the few crucial questions pinpointing and analysing. For this reason data analysis is becoming increasingly more important in Marketing Research than the problems encountered in the early days, those of data collection. Some new solutions to that old problem in Marketing Research are shown and illustrated by applying time-series-analysis and Marketing Information systems (MIS) by Marketing Research Agencies.
The new UN recommendations for the phased development of national Systems of International Tourism Statistics are presented, with the principal definitions and classifications. Some problems in collecting, analysing and interpreting tourism data are discussed. The principal tourism statistics are presented for the 39 countries of the European region for 1975 with estimates of international tourist arrivals and tourist-inights according to UN definitions. Tourism is highly seasonal and subject to strong fluctuations in trends and also to changes in seasonal patterns. Time series analysis enables the use of seasonally-adjusted data for historic and current monitoring of tourism flows and for forecasting. Some recommendations are proposed for furthering tourism statistics.
The purpose of this article is to present a comparison of three alternative methods for sales forecasting - trend analysis, time series analysis and regression analysis. Rather than looking at the theoretical differences, the focus is on practical differences that can be easily understood by the marketing executive. Thus this comparison includes a discussion of the assumptions about the sales forecasting situation inherent in each method, a look at the use of each technique in a number of real situations, and perhaps most importantly, the reliability and accuracy of the forecasts produced using each technique.
In this paper an econometric price analysis of Dutch tomatoes will be presented. It is not only an effort at developing a tool of short run price forecasting. In fact, the analysis will be focussed on structural developments of the market. The plan of the paper is the following. In paragraph two a brief description of the market will be given. Some alternative models describing the relationships between the main factors affecting prices are proposed in the paragraph three. Estimation of the models is performed on the basis of time series data over the period 1950 - 1966. Results will be discussed in view of the marketing policy warranted in paragraph five. Finally some forecasts of prices will be made.
In this paper I want to consider a new way of analysing consumer purchasing data. In brief the method consists of classifying consumers not by the usual demographic characteristics, but in terms of their purchasing behaviour in some previous period. We shall be considering the way in which a comprehensive mathematical model of consumer purchasing behaviour is useful, firstly in suggesting the form of analysis referred to above, and secondly in providing the necessary background for a proper interpretation of the analysis when carried out. The mathematical model referred to is the negative binomial model of consumer purchasing and the work to be described in this paper is part of a long-term programme of research and can be regarded as a development of the work previously reported to this conference in September 1962.
The authors are not in agreement as to the possibility of combining on one graph a correlation between two variables and the evolution of the former in time, in other words putting three variables on a plane graph. We shall not enter into the details of the question, and this modest contribution is only designed to make known our experience in this field and the satisfaction we have derived from this method. The method consists in establishing a relationship between two data on an international,, interdepartmental, inter-community level, etc., but instead, of being limited to a photograph of the respective positions of the spaces under consideration, a film is presented, in other words the notion of time for each country, department, community, etc. is introduced into the graph. These areas are no longer represented by a point, but by a line which interprets the evolutional tendency of a country and whose curve can thus be compared to that of the line of lessor squares.
The authors are not in agreement as to the possibility of combining on one graph a correlation between two variables and the evolution of the former in time, in other words putting three variables on a plane graph. We shall not enter into the details of the question, and this modest contribution is only designed to make known our experience in this field and the satisfaction we have derived from this method. The method consists in establishing a relationship between two data on an international,, interdepartmental, inter-community level, etc., but instead, of being limited to a photograph of the respective positions of the spaces under consideration, a film is presented, in other words the notion of time for each country, department, community, etc. is introduced into the graph. These areas are no longer represented by a point, but by a line which interprets the evolutional tendency of a country and whose curve can thus be compared to that of the line of lessor squares.
The Netherlands Postal and Telecommunications Services are using market research Inter alia regarding the telephone market. At first sight this may seem remarkable because the company holds a legal monopoly on a market which is far from being saturated. The management has to strain its resources to the utmost to cope with the spontaneous stream of new subscribers and the ever Increasing traffic. But bearing in mind that the telephone service requires high Investments in cable networks, exchanges and apparatus, it is self-evident that a forecast of future developments is urgently needed. To get an Insight into these developments, different methods are being used, i.e.: 1. Inquiries; 2. Econometric methods such as the analysis of time series and the cross section analysis; 3. Marginal Income method; 4. International comparison, which is based on the principle that a study is made of the trend-of the relevant, quantity in the countries where this quantity has developed further than in the home country. Hereafter the techniques mentioned will be illustrated by means of a brief representation of some applications.