In this paper, following a review of the historical development of research methods for predicting volume sales and brand shares of new products, a new model (MicroTest) is described which uses information gathered in a concept/product test for volume prediction. The model makes use of brand related parameters (such as advertising and distribution), altitudinal predispositions (e.g. experimentalism), and circumstantial factors as input to the model, and these are described, together with the method of integrating these for predicting at the individual respondent level. Individual results are then accumulated across a sample of individuals, and grossed up to provide national sales estimates. The paper describes the various development stages undergone in the construction of the model, and the techniques used to assist this process. In particular, the way in which Artificial Intelligence techniques such as rule induction was used is discussed. Finally, the paper discusses the way in which the basic model may be extended, and some recent work which used the model to generate a measure of cumulative penetration.
Trade research is a collective term for a series of specially developed techniques serving the needs and objectives of marketing management at the various stages of the distribution network. Just as the elementary methods of consumer research have been adapted and improved to gear them more specifically to particular problems, so the basic techniques of research among the distributive trades have been refined from the original to meet current demands. This chapter deals with the basic techniques and illustrates a few of the applications and developments that have occurred. It makes no attempt to be comprehensive. Of all the expenditure on trade research, by far the most is spent on retail and wholesale audits; the remainder is probably divided evenly between distribution checks and ad hoc research at the point of sale, in particular surveys among the retail trade. Almost inevitably, therefore, the emphasis in this chapter will be upon trade audits.
This paper is an assessment of the state of new product research in Europe seen through the eyes of a director of an agency supplying research services in the European market. The author starts with some qualifying remarks as to the validity of the concept of a "European" research market. Differences in language, in consumer habits and in the range of available advertising media are all forces for the execution of international marketing strategies remaining under local control and subject to local influences and adaptations. It is this situation which is responsible for most decisions regarding market research still being made on a country by country and not on a pan-European basis. The paper then looks at developments in new product research under two basic areas of activity: - Product development research based on consumer opinion; - Test market research based on consumer behaviour.
This paper sets out to show how a technique which was originally developed simply as a means of eliminating the fundamentally unacceptable product before it incurred substantial losses in test market, has shown itself to be capable of much more. The emphasis of the paper is on a series of case histories which illustrate the ability of micro-market testing to provide the basis of accurate volume estimates, to differentiate between price levels and to provide a speed of response and a degree of flexibility which would be beyond conventional test marketing. A second purpose of the paper is to demonstrate how a research technique which was originally developed for operation in the UK has been successfully transposed into a number of other national environments.
A manufacturer who is aware of each Multiple's company philosophy is in a good position to present new products in the light of that knowledge, and to emphasise those aspects that will most readily attract a favourable response. But a company philosophy is by no means the most powerful of the influences that will determine the eventual acceptance or rejection of a new product. Other key factors involve the category into which the new product falls and what it can do for the multiple's position; the support factors such as the manufacturer's standing in the market; his relations with the trade, the presentation of the new product, the advertising support, and the packaging; and the deal itself, in particular, the price which tends to reflect the importance of the launch. Only the right combination of all these will secure retailer acceptance and what is 'right' will obviously vary from retailer to retailer.
The advantages of consumer panel data therefore extend way beyond its ability to provide comprehensive brand share data where other methods suffer from Inadequate coverage, to tell us something about the numbers of people buying as well as the quantity bought and to analyse the data by people as well as by area and shop type characteristics. The major value of a consumer panel can only be extracted when one stops regarding It as a measure of group behaviour within defined time periods and starts regarding it as a measure of individual behaviour over time.