As decision-making for prescription pharmaceuticals becomes increasingly pluralistic, forecasting the market share of a new product or line extension is more difficult than ever, especially in global, international applications. This paper presents a model that parameterizes the decision-making process for each element in the process and then integrates them into a comprehensive market forecasting system.
During the past decade, electronic measurement has clearly demonstrated its ability to satisfy the growing information needs of the advertising industry in the United States. The growing array of innovative electronic consumer data collection devices including meters, people meters, in- store scanners and in-home scanners have provided researchers with the tools needed to replace the tedious pen and pencil methods of gathering information directly from consumers. The users of research services have enthusiastically approved this revolutionary change as evidenced by their substantial financial commitments to electronic measurement services. The most promising application area for electronic consumer measurement have been given the name "single source" which means that multiple sets of behavioral data are being collected from individual consumer households. This paper describes the need which single source intends to satisfy and introduces an entirely new single source system which promises to advance the frontier for high utility electronic consumer panel applications
Single-source, an expression being used in the United States to describe a system that would combine the measurement of an individual consumer's product purchase and TV viewing behavior, is widely believed to hold a high potential solution to the problem of how best to increase the efficiency of everyday advertising communications with consumers. However, before single-source can become a reality, in-home measurement techniques, as practiced by many of the world's research organizations, must be dramatically upgraded through the use of modern electronics. In Denver, Colorado, a system called ScanAmerica, with the potential to satisfy the world's growing need for single-source measurement, has been successfully installed. Development of this service is supported by two leading U.S. market research firms: the Arbitron Ratings Company and SAMI, Inc. Today's conference speech will discuss the research design considerations used in developing ScanAmerica. Some early findings from the Denver project will also be presented.