Our purpose in writing this paper is to rise above the level of technique and to begin a discussion of what makes market modelling work. What is being achieved with this field of technology, what is possible, and what form is modelling likely to take in companies just beginning to use it? What are the trends, so that we can avoid re-creating the past and move on to develop a future.
The objective of this paper is to develop a comprehensive model of individual choice behavior based on a review of similar attempts in many disciplines. Predicting and explaining how and why individuals choose a particular alternative among many available alternatives has been of great interest and importance to the following disciplines: Economics; Sociology; Social Psychology; Psychology; Decision Theory.
This paper is an attempt to discuss the concept of validation when applied to marketing models. It is suggested that "validity" is a highly complex notion that the marketing scientists inherited from various other disciplines. Unfortunately, pre-existing conceptions about validity bear little relevance to the specificity of the marketing context, hence a new framework is proposed in order to take into account the requirements of this context when validating a marketing model. Various aspects of marketing models verification are reviewed and a taxonomy of approaches to validation operations is put forward. The second half of the paper is devoted to a practical example of a validation exercise dealing with a micro-model of the new product adoption process; special emphasis is given to the role of management in specifying and carrying out the validation task.
In this paper we examine a number of issues concerning the validation of two types of macro models: Aggregate response models, and aggregate flow models. The discussion is preceded by some remarks about model construction. The validation process is considered to consist of two steps: model fit and model prediction. Model fit will mostly involve econometric techniques as far as aggregate response models are concerned, tracking or trial-and-error-estimation for aggregate flow models. We will emphasise the need for good data and will argue for increasing the frequency of observations. The second step, model prediction, is in many cases not carried out by lack of data. A brief discussion is given of an empirical study about the relationship between market share and outlet share for the gasoline market in a European country.
In this paper, then, we deal not only with belief importance but with wider aspects of consumer modelling. Firstly, for completeness, we briefly outline the major belief models discussed in the literature; secondly, we describe the threshold model in greater detail; thirdly we discuss how threshold and other models may be used by consumers in a combined and sequential manner; finally we outline case histories which shift the emphasis to a more operational and practical level, and which indicate the major role we currently see for threshold.
The Hendry system represents a total systems approach to the analysis of the marketplace. It is based on the existence of fundamental properties of consumer preferences and competitive market structures. The paper devotes a section to each of these topics. It then relates, in the third section, the interaction of marketing strategies with the properties of the marketplace previously described. Sales and profits are used as multiple criteria of managerial performance.
In this paper the authors propose as framework, or spine, a modular behavioural model structure that imbeds the various sequential development tests, sets the guidelines for data collection and processing and provides the logic for various evaluative models designed for the specific elements under development. After exposing the principles of this framework, the authors describe its practical application through a case study before drawing general conclusions.
The choice or decision process of a consumer passes off along several stages. The general sequence of the stages in the decision process is: 1. problem recognition, the felt need for a product or a service; 2. decision to spend money on a product category; 3. information search, search for alternatives; 4. evaluation process, comparison of alternatives; 5. choice of an alternative (product or brand). 6. post-purchase learning: experience, satisfaction. This paper is concerned especially with stage 4 in the decision process: the evaluation process of comparing the choice alternatives. The outcome of the evaluation process is the choice of an alternative, or the choice not to buy (stage 5). In repetitive choice behaviour, e.g. daily purchases, certain simplifying mechanisms will shorten the decision process and decrease the cognitive strain of the decision-maker.
The literature on market segmentation published during the last 10 years is very rich, but unfortunately all of the published studies treat market segmentation as a cross-sectional analysis at one particular point in time. What is lacking is a serious study and description, also of the dynamic aspects of market segmentation. These aspects can be illustrated by the following questions : 1. How do the relative and absolute size of different market segments change over time?; 2. How does market behaviour - expressed in probabilistic terms - change within a given market segment as time goes by?; 3. Is the market segmentation structure which was found to be optimal (according to certain statistical criteria and available data) three years ago still the best available structure for describing and predicting consumer behaviour in 1975? In this paper the first two questions are briefly discussed, while the last two questions are treated in more depth. Questions 3 and 4 are illustrated with data derived from three consecutive cross-sectional analyses undertaken by the author in 1963 1966 and 1971 using the same measurement instrument. The paper ends suggesting to you a model for fully dynamic studies of the market place based on segmentation concepts.
In my own approach to modelling, I try to bear three questions in mind: A) Does the approach generate sufficient confidence to lead to application?; B) Does the application produce improvement in planning/decision making?; C) Does the gain from this improvement justify the costs of the modelling exercise?. These are essentially practical questions in which the idea of validity looms large and I am grateful to Faivre & Sanchez for developing their notion of validity. I think they have captured the essence of validity in their description of it as "the adequacy of the model as a mimic of the system which it is intended to represent".
This paper describes the background of a longitudinal study aimed at the development of a predictive model for the individual household's purchase behaviour concerning specific durable goods. Firstly, the setting of the problem is explained. Next, methodological, empirical, and theoretical contributions from a variety of studies which range from economic analyses of aggregated market demand to psychological studies of attitude-behaviour relationships, are discussed and are integrated into a conceptual model in which the household's purchase is a function of the household's situation, the household's anticipations, and changes in either of these two groups of variables. Then, a review of the selected variables is presented. Lastly, some results of preliminary surveys concerning the choice of a representative of the household to be interviewed, the choice of an interview-technique, and the response pattern through time of repeatedly interviewed panel members, are shown.