The distinction is often made at firm level between strategic decisions implying productive or commercial investment on a large scale and based on medium or long-term forecasts (3, 5 or 10 years), and tactical decisions relating to day-to-day management which refer to short-term forecasts (1 to 18 months). The reference data available, overall demand expressed in time series or more detailed information in cross-section, and the nature of the products, new or not new, have led to the parallel development of two separate forecasting techniques: econometric models and market segmentation models respectively. The paper gives a rapid description of the way in which these techniques have evolved over the last fifteen years and of the current trend, placing special emphasis on the advisability of integrating forecasting models with medium-term planning so as to produce veritable simulation models covering the possible growth prospects of the firm.
The distinction is often made at firm level between strategic decisions implying productive or commercial investment on a large scale and based on medium or long-term forecasts (3, 5 or 10 years), and tactical decisions relating to day-to-day management which refer to short-term forecasts (1 to 18 months). The reference data available, overall demand expressed in time series or more detailed information in cross-section, and the nature of the products, new or not new, have led to the parallel development of two separate forecasting techniques: econometric models and market segmentation models respectively. The paper gives a rapid description of the way in which these techniques have evolved over the last fifteen years and of the current trend, placing special emphasis on the advisability of integrating forecasting models with medium-term planning so as to produce veritable simulation models covering the possible growth prospects of the firm.
The sole purpose of research into markets lies in the support it can give to planning for different time periods. This implies that market research becomes marketing research when it also deals with research into the most economic way of application of means to reach certain objectives. The way in which the planning process in a company is organised and the aspects of management it covers are very important for research. We can read very much, today, on strategic planning, tactical or operations planning, normative and exploratory forecasting, corporate and marketing planning. Business is invaded by other military terms such as goals, missions, action, while the sociologists make their contributions by introducing environments, social systems and interactions and so on.
Here you see that in about 20 years from now, Africa's and Latin America's population will grow by about 70%, Asia by somewhat over 40%, North America by a good 30% and Europe by less than 20%. What do these growth rates mean for the airline industry? Up to now they have only given us a first indication and perhaps even a wrong one about future developments.
During the last 12 months, there has been a flood of information about the European Free Trade Area. Lectures, meetings, discussions, articles and brochures have come in abundance. We have been told that it is important, inevitable, dangerous, attractive, critical, unwise, invaluable, almost upon us and too far off to cause such a commotion. Finally, our own Prime Minister has told us, in a speech in July, that many of us do not have the will to export. Therefore, many British business men are still confused about the prospects.