The panelists will cover a number of areas regarding polling and the U.S. Election, including the following: - How the evidence explains what actually happened in this US election;- How criticisms of US pre-election polls have raised questions about the viability of public opinion research;- How to evaluate the impact of the 2020 election polls for all forms of opinion research.
With only a few weeks to go before the U.S. presidential election, Americans are facing the potential for a long and protracted period of uncertainty about the outcome. Will Donald Trump be elected for four more years or will the American voters make a change and elect Joe Biden? In this webinar, North American and International pollsters will share their views on where the race stands, what seem to be the central issues, and how - and when - it's all likely to end.Voter Priorities, Battleground States, and Other Assorted Things to Keep Your Eye On The 2020 US Presidential Electionby Clifford Young, President, Public Affairs, Ipsos USAPollsters confront new challenges in every election, but perhaps never as many as they do in 2020. This presentation summarizes those challenges, with new data and warnings for analysts.Who gets the ballot box bonus?by Jean-Marc Leger, President, Leger Market Research and AnalyticsIt will all come down to voter enthusiasm. Assessing voter turnout is a key factor in allowing polls to be close to the election's results, especially in battleground states. Jean-Marc Leger will present his innovative techniques to better evaluate voter turnout and improve the accuracy of election polling.Identifying Voters and Reporting the Votes Before, On, and Even After Election DayBy Joe Lenski, Co-founder and Executive Vice President, Edison ResearchThe election isn't over until we know the winner. This year increases in vote by mail, the coronavirus pandemic and campaign attacks on the process may make reporting the results more difficult than ever. What tools- old and new- are being used to know the voting outcome? From The Red Wall To The Rust Belt - How Forgotten Communities In The UK and The US Flexed Their Political MuscleBy Deborah Mattinson, Founding Partner, BritainThinks.A view from across the pond; the lessons Americans can learn from recent British elections.
Why did Labour lose? Why the Conservatives won? What happens next? What does this tell us about the likely outcome in the US election?
We are now less than 100 days before U.S. voters go to the polls to decide whether to stick with Donald Trump for four more years or make a change and elect Joe Biden. In this webinar, five North American pollsters will share their views on where the race stands, what seems to be the central issues, and how it's all likely to turn out.
Opinion polls and electoral polls were subject to intense scrutiny and criticism in the wake of the 2016 experience, followed by renewed confidence in the first months of 2017. Polling firms are facing up to the current challenges and reports of the death of quantitative electoral forecasts are "greatly exaggerated".
This paper is a contribution by the WIN Network (international association gathering leading independent market research and polling firms in their respective countries), to discussions on changes in the polling industry. Drawing on feedback from one of its members (bva-group.com), which tracked the 2017 French presidential election using various sources of data (web listening, an online community, and polls collected via POP2017 public opinion platform), it also presents the results of an experiment conducted with two behavioral scientists at the Santa Fe Institute (USA). The purpose of this joint research, which was conducted during the French presidential campaign, was to better understand the factors ? particularly social bubbles ? that influence voters as well as measure the impact of fake news on public opinion.
The accuracy of polling has been under the serious spotlight over the last couple of years. This paper is a summary of analysis conducted on an international database of 31310 polls from 473 elections and voting events across 40 countries around the world from 1936 to 2017 complied by Kantar.
Some would say that our industry started a century ago when in 1916 the Literary Digest ran the first national opinion poll among its readers, correctly predicting Woodrow Wilson as the next US President. The Digest correctly called the next four elections. How have we changed over the last hundred years and where will we be in the next hundred?
This paper describes the use of computerised topic analysis to segment and analyse tweets by US presidential election candidates in 2016. The statistical technique used to create the topic is called Latent Dirichlet Analysis (LDA). The paper shows how LDA can be used to automatically generate topics un textual data and discusses the potential to use LDA as both a static 'batch" and real time analysis approach for textual data.
The unexpected success of Jean-Marie Le Pen in the first round of Frances recent Presidential election came as a shock for not only the nations politicians but its pollsters. As elsewhere, political opinion polling constitutes only a small fraction of survey research activity but is largely responsible for public awareness of the research industrys existence.