With only a few weeks to go before the U.S. presidential election, Americans are facing the potential for a long and protracted period of uncertainty about the outcome. Will Donald Trump be elected for four more years or will the American voters make a change and elect Joe Biden? In this webinar, North American and International pollsters will share their views on where the race stands, what seem to be the central issues, and how - and when - it's all likely to end.Voter Priorities, Battleground States, and Other Assorted Things to Keep Your Eye On The 2020 US Presidential Electionby Clifford Young, President, Public Affairs, Ipsos USAPollsters confront new challenges in every election, but perhaps never as many as they do in 2020. This presentation summarizes those challenges, with new data and warnings for analysts.Who gets the ballot box bonus?by Jean-Marc Leger, President, Leger Market Research and AnalyticsIt will all come down to voter enthusiasm. Assessing voter turnout is a key factor in allowing polls to be close to the election's results, especially in battleground states. Jean-Marc Leger will present his innovative techniques to better evaluate voter turnout and improve the accuracy of election polling.Identifying Voters and Reporting the Votes Before, On, and Even After Election DayBy Joe Lenski, Co-founder and Executive Vice President, Edison ResearchThe election isn't over until we know the winner. This year increases in vote by mail, the coronavirus pandemic and campaign attacks on the process may make reporting the results more difficult than ever. What tools- old and new- are being used to know the voting outcome? From The Red Wall To The Rust Belt - How Forgotten Communities In The UK and The US Flexed Their Political MuscleBy Deborah Mattinson, Founding Partner, BritainThinks.A view from across the pond; the lessons Americans can learn from recent British elections.
Why did Labour lose? Why the Conservatives won? What happens next? What does this tell us about the likely outcome in the US election?
Opinion polls and electoral polls were subject to intense scrutiny and criticism in the wake of the 2016 experience, followed by renewed confidence in the first months of 2017. Polling firms are facing up to the current challenges and reports of the death of quantitative electoral forecasts are "greatly exaggerated".
This paper is a contribution by the WIN Network (international association gathering leading independent market research and polling firms in their respective countries), to discussions on changes in the polling industry. Drawing on feedback from one of its members (bva-group.com), which tracked the 2017 French presidential election using various sources of data (web listening, an online community, and polls collected via POP2017 public opinion platform), it also presents the results of an experiment conducted with two behavioral scientists at the Santa Fe Institute (USA). The purpose of this joint research, which was conducted during the French presidential campaign, was to better understand the factors ? particularly social bubbles ? that influence voters as well as measure the impact of fake news on public opinion.
The accuracy of polling has been under the serious spotlight over the last couple of years. This presentation will deliver some preliminary analysis from an international review of historical published polling data from 25 countries compiled by Kantar which will answer this question and also help market researcher understand better why polls don't always predict election results.
This paper is a contribution by the WIN Network (international association gathering leading independent market research and polling firms in their respective countries), to discussions on changes in the polling industry. Drawing on feedback from one of its members (bva-group.com), which tracked the 2017 French presidential election using various sources of data (web listening, an online community, and polls collected via POP2017 public opinion platform), it also presents the results of an experiment conducted with two behavioral scientists at the Santa Fe Institute (USA). The purpose of this joint research, which was conducted during the French presidential campaign, was to better understand the factors ? particularly social bubbles ? that influence voters as well as measure the impact of fake news on public opinion.
The accuracy of polling has been under the serious spotlight over the last couple of years. This paper is a summary of analysis conducted on an international database of 31310 polls from 473 elections and voting events across 40 countries around the world from 1936 to 2017 complied by Kantar.
Latin America is facing one of the most complex moments in its recent history. From the corruption scandals in Brazil, to the turmoil in Venezuela, from Mexico's border relationship with USA to Argentinas financial turbulence. This presentation focuses on Mexico's upcoming social challenges, political risks and financial opportunities while highlighting the new geopolitical frame for the region.
In recent years, the rise of the National Front party has been a major feature of the French political landscape. Understanding the drivers behind the electoral successes of that party is now crucial for mainstream parties if they want to counter it efficiently. This is no small task, as the vote for the National Front is difficult to estimate for pollsters. Our contribution shows how Open Data can help shed light on the question, by combining voting data with freely available administrative data sets. In particular, we address the important question of the link between turn out and the National Front vote. We show that simple correlations between the two are biased and we estimate the true link by econometric modelling, dealing with endogeneity.
In the world of market research there are few parties who come in for more scrutiny than political pollsters. With so much emotion riding on a clear outcome it is understandable that people pay attention. A large portion of market research essentially revolves around making a prediction and this is no more apparent than in political research. How to make good predictions has led us to the more specific question of how to predict an election. This presentation provides illustrations of the when, how and what of methods to best armour yourself to make such predictions.
In the world of market research there are few parties who come in for more scrutiny than political pollsters. With so much emotion riding on a clear outcome it is understandable that people pay attention. A large portion of market research essentially revolves around making a prediction and this is no more apparent than in political research. How to make good predictions has led us to the more specific question of how to predict an election. This presentation provides illustrations of the when, how and what of methods to best armour yourself to make such predictions.