This paper is a contribution by the WIN Network (international association gathering leading independent market research and polling firms in their respective countries), to discussions on changes in the polling industry. Drawing on feedback from one of its members (bva-group.com), which tracked the 2017 French presidential election using various sources of data (web listening, an online community, and polls collected via POP2017 public opinion platform), it also presents the results of an experiment conducted with two behavioral scientists at the Santa Fe Institute (USA). The purpose of this joint research, which was conducted during the French presidential campaign, was to better understand the factors ? particularly social bubbles ? that influence voters as well as measure the impact of fake news on public opinion.
The accuracy of polling has been under the serious spotlight over the last couple of years. This paper is a summary of analysis conducted on an international database of 31310 polls from 473 elections and voting events across 40 countries around the world from 1936 to 2017 complied by Kantar.
In recent years, the rise of the National Front party has been a major feature of the French political landscape. Understanding the drivers behind the electoral successes of that party is now crucial for mainstream parties if they want to counter it efficiently. This is no small task, as the vote for the National Front is difficult to estimate for pollsters. Our contribution shows how Open Data can help shed light on the question, by combining voting data with freely available administrative data sets. In particular, we address the important question of the link between turn out and the National Front vote. We show that simple correlations between the two are biased and we estimate the true link by econometric modelling, dealing with endogeneity.
In the world of market research there are few parties who come in for more scrutiny than political pollsters. With so much emotion riding on a clear outcome it is understandable that people pay attention. A large portion of market research essentially revolves around making a prediction and this is no more apparent than in political research. How to make good predictions has led us to the more specific question of how to predict an election. This presentation provides illustrations of the when, how and what of methods to best armour yourself to make such predictions.
This presentation details a large-scale community consultation program that has informed The Queensland Plan: A 30 year vision for Queensland. This study engaged every State Member of Parliament, industry leaders, the business community and the broader Queensland population. Over a four month consultation period, the views of over 78,000 Queenslanders were captured in a program of work that utilised a mix of events, channels and platforms to enable all Queenslanders (regardless of age, location, social economic status or cultural background) to participate. Feedback was captured, distilled and summarised to inform and guide the future direction of the State. While the nature of feedback captured was diverse, nine clear themes emerged, and within each, a number of solutions and requirements were identified. These findings were endorsed by over 600 representatives of the Queensland community. Within this presentation, key community engagement principles are detailed as well as key learnings for large scale multi modal programs that utilise online and offline strategies to drive participation and extract meaning.
The role of opinion polling in new democracy countries is highlighted in this presentation. Governments and institutions must be aware of the importance of updated and accurate public opinion information, knowledge, and attitudes. Tunisia is a case study example of the necessity of understanding vote restraints and illegal practices.
Research for social and political purposes is a fundamental building block in the making and sustenance of a successful democracy. The return on research in the social and political domain far outweighs its cost. Research is indeed a fundamental plank of democracy, allowing the governed to speak to those in power in between elections, ensuring that those who rule are kept close to the realities of their peoples' needs and helping them inform their electorates and engage them in rational conversation. In todays world of utilitarian politics, it is perhaps the most important tool that we have.