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Research papers

The Irish constitutional referendum 1986

This paper outlines the role and impact of opinion polls during the two years preceding the recent Irish Constitutional Referendum on divorce, and also in the final stages of the actual campaign. In doing so, it emphasises the relevance of...

Catalogue: Seminar 1986: Opinion Polls
Author: Jack Jones
June 15, 1986

Research papers

Sweden

The Swedish election 1985 produced a surprisingly strong finish for the small Liberal party in Sweden - 14,50% compared to 5,90% in the previous electron in 1982. The polls had kept the party in the 5 to 7% range until the weeks before the election...

Catalogue: Seminar 1986: Opinion Polls
Authors: Hans L. Zetterberg, Gunnar Andren
June 15, 1986

Research papers

The democracy of opinion polls

I would like to suggest that the polling industry should not agonise too much about getting elections wrong. Error may be good for you; an occasional disaster can be good for the industry and good for the public. If polls were to have too long a run...

Catalogue: Seminar 1986: Opinion Polls
Author: David Butler
June 15, 1986

Research papers

The don't know voters

The paper presents a model for investigating the don't know phenomenon in the elections. The model distinguishes four different types of don't know voters according to the way people are stopped or remain stopped in the elections. The testing of the...

Catalogue: Seminar 1986: Opinion Polls
Author: Paula Hirstiö-Snellman
Company: Gallup International Association
June 15, 1986

Research papers

The effects of rural component on opinion polls

Past studies have attempted the effect of various factors on the accuracy of opinion polls. In the area of pre-election poll alone researchers have studied the effects of question order (Crespi and Morris, 1984), late trend in voter preference (Day...

Catalogue: Seminar 1986: Opinion Polls
Author: J. Rajaretnam
Company: IMRB International
June 15, 1986

Research papers

The use and publication of polls in a democracy

Pre-elections polls have never before been so disqualified in Spain. It will need quite a few years of impeccable work and new favourable electoral conditions for the professional activity of public opinion researchers to recover the image and the...

Catalogue: Seminar 1986: Opinion Polls
Author: Ginés Garrido Alart
June 15, 1986

Research papers

The influence of opinion polls on the outcome of the May 1986 elections in The Netherlands

Over the past few years, the author has frequently been featured on radio and television, presenting and commenting on the results of political opinion polls. The polls of May 16th and 17th as conducted by Inter/View, as well as those organized by...

Catalogue: Seminar 1986: Opinion Polls
Author: Maurice de Hond
June 15, 1986

Research papers

The influence of poll data on public opinion

This contribution has three aims: 1. To determine the existing assumptions about possible negative influences of opinion polls. 2. To determine what can be said about these assumptions from the point of view of empirical social science. 3. To outline...

Catalogue: Seminar 1986: Opinion Polls
Author: Wolfgang Donsbach
June 15, 1986

Research papers

TV's use of regular polls

This is a report about the use of polls on television at CBS News. A brief history traces the acceptance of polls during the early days of television in political and public affairs broadcasts. Polls began as an important source of information for...

Catalogue: Seminar 1986: Opinion Polls
Author: Warren Mitofsky
June 15, 1986