1963 has been a year of further economic growth in Norway. Gross national product increased by about 5%, production in industry by about 6% and in exports there was an increase of about 8%. Prices have been rather stable. Retail sales increase by about 5%. Apart from the above mentioned changes, there is a developing trend with regard to more media and advertising research.
The present Yearbook will give further illustrations of some of the tendencies signalled last year.
The growth of market research in the last two years in the Indian Union has happily been far greater than the growth in the markets concerned. One perhaps can say that this is due to the result of recognition last, that the marketing research techniques practised here have something to contribute to the understanding of the market to which a planned, and yet free, economy works in conditions which are increasingly akin to those of the developed world.
Governments - new and almost new - are confronted with the immediate need of knowing what policies are acceptable to whom and under what terms. This need is not always recognized. Yet a recent statement by a Cabinet Minister in one country that communications can no longer remain a one-way street points up a growing acceptance that policy and planning must meet some degree of acceptance. Business- particularly commercial interests seeking new markets or capital interested but wary of investments in unknown areas - need studies ranging from the simplest of consumer shelf counts to a more sophisticated analysis of Government attitudes towards foreign business. The mass media lack the most fundamental readership or listenership statistics. Television, with unlimited appeal to populations tragically short of recreation facilities and eager for news, can scarcely expand further with safety, without the guide-lines which public opinion surveys can supply. Turning the coin to its other side, the area offers to those who would practise research there new opportunities to wrestle with some very difficult and sophisticated professional and social problems. It even offers an opportunity to make a living if the support discussed later in this paper is forthcoming.
For the first time in the history of the world of industrial labour the situation in Germany is characterised by the fact that the jobs available exceed the labour supply. This state of affairs, called full employment by the economists, does not necessarily mean that the labour force and the available positions are in balance. Full employment may be veiling a state of scarcity. The centre of gravity in the production factors is shifting from the capital for technical equipment or land to labour. The question as to how to obtain sufficient and suitable labour governs managerial thinking. According to the results of numerous studies the disproportion between supply and demand in the labour market is structural and thus tends to be permanent. In this paper we will outline the possible tasks of labour market research.
For the first time in the history of the world of industrial labour the situation in Germany is characterised by the fact that the jobs available exceed the labour supply. This state of affairs, called full employment by the economists, does not necessarily mean that the labour force and the available positions are in balance. Full employment may be veiling a state of scarcity. The centre of gravity in the production factors is shifting from the capital for technical equipment or land to labour. The question as to how to obtain sufficient and suitable labour governs managerial thinking. According to the results of numerous studies the disproportion between supply and demand in the labour market is structural and thus tends to be permanent. In this paper we will outline the possible tasks of labour market research.
The postwar development of the Japanese economy has been remarkable. Following the economic reconstruction which was largely effected within a decade, the national economic activities have moved far beyond the prewar level, and are maintaining a rapid upward trend as may be indicated by the annual rate of economic growth.
The first point I want to emphasise is that the major problem for economists and for the market researchers when they look to the long term future, cannot really be regarded as a problem of forecasting.
I shall not specifically deal with economic forecasts of a general nature, but that I shall put the accent on market forecasts. It may well be reasoned that every market forecast presupposes a forecast of the business situation and of any expected structural changes in the economy, so that in fact both kinds of forecasts are inseparable. The fact is, however, that trends in consumer durable sales do not necessarily reflect the fluctuations in the state of the economy, although influences the price and the types of a product sold can be severely felt. It would, therefore, be necessary for a producer of durable consumer goods to determine the influence of the factors affecting his sales, whether of a specific business cycle nature or not. The relevant information can be obtained from many sources, and the more and the better it is,- and the better the ability to combine them and analyse them, the better the chance that the forecast will be correct. In other words both statistical research at the desk and field studies have to be used to arrive at forecasts that satisfy a company a need. I shall now deal with two methods of forecasting the first one concerns the what may be termed statistical forecast and the second one concerns the forecast based on the consumers intention to buy.