Extracting insights from data is a lot like trying to solve a murder based on circumstantial evidence. We create one or more "theories" or narratives and then look to the evidence for confirmation of our hypotheses. This all works reasonably well when the evidence is consistent and well-behaved, but we can run into trouble when the facts contradict one another. This presentation looks at a real murder case with many contradictions among the different bits of evidence as a way to demonstrate the use of Bayes' Theorem to sort out the discrepancies and inconsistencies and arrive at "true" insightâthe narrative that is most probable based on the evidence.
Extracting insights from data is a lot like trying to solve a murder based on circumstantial evidence. We create one or more "theories" or narratives and then look to the evidence for confirmation of our hypotheses. This all works reasonably well when the evidence is consistent and well-behaved, but we can run into trouble when the facts contradict one another. This presentation looks at a real murder case with many contradictions among the different bits of evidence as a way to demonstrate the use of Bayes' Theorem to sort out the discrepancies and inconsistencies and arrive at "true" insightâthe narrative that is most probable based on the evidence.
The last decade has seen phenomenal growth in market research activity in emerging Asian markets; much of the growth has been driven by Western multinationals seeking to enter or extend their reach in Asian markets. In response, a dynamic Asia-based research industry has emerged that in large part replicates Western research methods. However, Western marketers may not be getting all the insight they need and desire from the research they conduct in emerging Asian markets. This presentation will identify four key misconceptions held by Western marketers and researchers that impact our ability to understand consumers in emerging Asian markets.
For some, evolution, or âchange,â represents a wonderful opportunity; for many others, it poses a grave challenge to the accepted norm; but for all of us, such change is now an undeniable and omnipresent element of daily life. As developments in technology, travel, media and communication enable us to bring the world closer together, faster, more regularly and more frequently, âchangeâ â ironically â becomes the constant, common denominator of life that we need to celebrate more.
A new insight framework based on four distinctive but overlapping types of insight: 'discovery' insights, 'predictive' insights, 'explanatory' insights and 'transformational' insights is explored in this presentation. Qual and quant techniques can generate each type of insight on their own, but the likelihood of generating insights increases exponentially when qual and quant are thoroughly integrated (as opposed to simply 'combined' in a research effort). Qual and quant methods have complementary strengths and weaknesses, and are subject to different interpretation biases. Qual and quant can learn something from each other about identifying and mitigating these biases.
What is the biggest threat to the future of market research? This paper argues that deep, permanent changes in the competitive dynamics of market research are behind its growing commoditization and that of other trends like 'DIY' research. The driving force behind these trends is 'dis-integration' or modularization of the value chain. This results in the migration of profit pools from large integrated agencies to smaller 'subsystem' providers. Survival in the face of this change will require new market research business models and this paper will outline what those models will look like.
Word of mouth is the hot topic in marketing these days. As reported by BrandWeek.com, spending on word of mouth marketing is projected to hit $1.3 billion (US$) in 2008. Interest in measuring and managing word of mouth communication about brands has intensified in recent years for a variety of reasons, but one factor is the realization that under the right circumstances, the spread of word of mouth looks much like an epidemic.Auto manufacturers have understood the importance of word of mouth communication for almost as long as automobiles have been offered for sale. Henry Ford probably knew something of the value of social networking in selling automobiles when he decided to pay his workers a wage that would make it possible for at least some of them to buy the cars they were building.
Tipping points, viral marketing, the butterfly effect - Marketers today want to understand and take advantage of these 'emergent' phenomena. Outside of marketing research, innovative social and computer scientists have developed a new approach to understanding complex 'non-linear' phenomena. This approach is known as agent-based simulation.This presentation introduces agent-based models and explains the way they work, with examples of applications for marketing and marketing research.