Only four months after the breach of the Berlin Wall, the Allensbach Institute had already set up its own interviewer network in the GDR, with approximately 600 interviewers recruited personally or by mail. Even before the first free elections in March 1990 2,5 interviews had been conducted. Election forecasts made prior to three selections held in 1990 demonstrated the efficacy of a Methodology based on quota sampling and standardized questionnaires designed according to western models. In a joint project, the Gruner + Jahr publishing house in Hamburg and the Allensbach Institute conducted the first Major media market study in the GDR in four weeks time, beginning with the fieldwork only 12 days after the monetary union (July 1, 1990). The present paper discusses the experiences gained by conducting surveys in East Germany between March 1990 and March 1991 and also deals with the similarities and differences between East and West Germans.
Only four months after the breach of the Berlin Wall, the Allensbach Institute had already set up its own interviewer network in the GDR, with approximately 600 interviewers recruited personally or by mail. Even before the first free elections in March 1990 2,5 interviews had been conducted. Election forecasts made prior to three selections held in 1990 demonstrated the efficacy of a Methodology based on quota sampling and standardized questionnaires designed according to western models. In a joint project, the Gruner + Jahr publishing house in Hamburg and the Allensbach Institute conducted the first Major media market study in the GDR in four weeks time, beginning with the fieldwork only 12 days after monetary union (July 1, 1990). The present paper discusses the experiences gained by conducting surveys in East Germany between March 1990 and March 1991 and also deals with the similarities and differences between East and West Germans.
Both market researchers and their clients subscribe to the notion that there are "two cultures": On the one hand, there is qualitative research with depth interviews, unstructured interviews with a small number of respondents. This is the creative research approach. The other option is the quantitative research approach based on large samples and structured questionnaires. This division into "two cultures" is detrimental to all involved. This paper will show that it is possible to combine the reliability of statistical evidence with the wealth of new ideas and perspectives offered by creative research. This, however, is an enterprise requiring imagination and hard work to develop the research material, questionnaires and types of analysis which facilitate creativity.
Both market researchers and their clients subscribe to the notion that there are "two cultures": On the one hand, there is qualitative research with depth interviews, unstructured interviews with a small number of respondents. This is the creative research approach. The other option is the quantitative research approach based on large samples and structured questionnaires. This division into "two cultures" is detrimental to all involved. This paper will show that it is possible to combine the reliability of statistical evidence with the wealth of new ideas and perspectives offered by creative research. This, however, is an enterprise requiring imagination and hard work to develop the research material, questionnaires and types of analysis which facilitate creativity.
Ever longer time-series trends in survey research are increasingly opening up opportunities to determine covariance and formulate hypo- theses about causality through analysis of the connections with other data from company statistics, from media content analyses of the print and electronic media--both in the advertising and editorial pages--or from official statistics. The validity of such hypotheses increases with the size of the sample and the length of the time period within which they are confirmed, thus providing increasingly firm ground for economic and political decisions. Research is faced with new challenges to develop theories which can clarify unanticipated connections.
Ever longer time-series trends in survey research are increasingly opening up opportunities to determine covariance and formulate hypotheses about causality through analysis of the connections with other data from company statistics, from media content analyses of the print and electronic media--both in the advertising and editorial pages or from official statistics. The validity of such hypotheses increases with the size of the sample and the length of the time period within which they are confirmed, thus providing increasingly firm ground for economic and political decisions. Research is faced with new challenges to develop theories which can clarify unanticipated connections.
We would like to divide up our paper into three sections. The first section will be devoted to specific technical questions which arise in the conducting of international surveys. In the second section, we would like to use an example to show that in international research we not only must concentrate on solutions to the technical problems of comparability, but we should also introduce new concepts, dimensions and perspectives, both in the interest of the individual project and also in the interest of progress in survey research in general. Finally, in the third section we would like to list a few basic principles for international research. It is open to debate whether these basic principles belong at the beginning or the end of such a pacer, and this depends on whether one prefers a deductive or an inductive way of thinking. We feel that putting the basic principles at the beginning makes them appear too much foregone conclusions, and that it is not until the end that their significance will be recognized.
The main thesis of this paper is that we have taken a new step toward understanding democratic elections since the early seventies. We are now in a position to understand the influence of processes of public opinion on voting behavior. The new influences are the climate of opinion; the use of a "quasi-statistical sense" people have to assess which attitudes are on the increase among the general public and which are on the decrease; the willingness to testify to one's voting intention in public or the tendency to keep silent ("spiral of silence"); the threat of isolating supporters of the other side by imbuing election themes with a moral dimension, and the role of the media, which are by definition public, in this process; and, again, as already treated by Lazarsfeld/Berelson/Gaudet but not by subsequent election research: the role of opinion leaders, the two-step flow of communication and the bandwagon effect.
This paper presents an instrument which serves to identify opinion leaders, a simple "strength of personality scale" developed by the Institut fur Demoskopie Allensbach and sponsored by the Spiegel Publishing Company. Testing the instrument with a log-linear procedure demonstrates that the strength of personality variable differentiates at least as well as or better than the variables sex, age and socio-economic status. It is also shown that the instrument demonstrates a high degree of reliability and that it can be validated by an external criterium.
This paper presents an instrument which serves to identify opinion leaders, a simple "strength of personality scale" developed by the Institut fur Demoskopie Allensbach and sponsored by the Spiegel Publishing Company. Testing the instrument with a log-linear procedure demonstrates that the strength of personality variable differentiates at least as well as or better than the variables sex, age and socio-economic status. It is also shown that the instrument demonstrates a high degree of reliability and that it can be validated by an external criterium.
The following paper reports on a dialogue held between the President of the German Constitutional Court and the author. This dialogue was set in motion indirectly by an article the author published in 1979 in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung about the reactions of the German population to the divorce legislation reform which came into force in 1977. At the time, several law suits had already been filed with the Federal Constitutional Court about the new rulings. In December 1981 the President of the Constitutional Court, Ernst Benda, presented a paper entitled "Consensus, Opinion Research and the Constitution" in which he investigated the contribution opinion research can make to the work of the Federal Constitutional Court, and in particular toward ensuring a basic consensus of views, e.g. that a certain minimum level of agreement be attained, even in the present difficult situation of rapid social change. In this paper, the President described how the survey results reported in the Frankfurter Allgmeine Zeitung helped the court understand why it had been so difficult for the new divorce legislation to gain acceptance in practice.
The following paper reports on a dialogue held between the President of the German Constitutional Court and the author. This dialogue was set in motion indirectly by an article the author published in 1979 in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung about the reactions of the German population to the divorce legislation reform which came into force in 1977. At the time, several law suits had already been filed with the Federal Constitutional Court about the new rulings. In December 1981 the President of the Constitutional Court, Ernst Benda, presented a paper entitled "Consensus, Opinion Research and the Constitution" in which he investigated the contribution opinion research can make to the work of the Federal Constitutional Court, and in particular toward ensuring a basic consensus of views, e.g. that a certain minimum level of agreement be attained, even in the present difficult situation of rapid social change. In this paper, the President described how the survey results reported in the Frankfurter Allgmeine Zeitung helped the court understand why it had been so difficult for the new divorce legislation to gain acceptance in practice.