This paper examines the impact of the GATT agreement and concludes that its direct impact will be minimal. More important is the establishment of a framework that will serve as a basis for GATT Mark II for agriculture from 2003. The current GATT will be used more as a lever to achieve changes to the current, and recently reformed, Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The main driver of future political change will be the EC farm budget for which a homing crisis beckons, in the arable sector the main policy instruments of set-aside, direct aid and declining intervention and export restitution, will remain. The only way to overcome the budget problem will be to increase set-aside, reduce compensation payments or do both. However such demands by the EC Commission will be âbought off by a substantial increase in support for industrial crop use. The overall impact on the agricultural industry will be an acceleration of farm structure change with concentration into fewer larger units to realise the savings in fixed costs. The farm input markets will decline and become even more aggressive, yet at the same time more 'accessible' for those who want to take innovative approaches to the distribution challenge. Despite the policy interventions there will be a surviving EC agriculture at the end of the decade, albeit as a 'leaner meaner machine'. Those who can bring new technology to the market and use the very best in marketing will have an exciting future.
This paper examines the long term potential of the development of consumption of agricultural inputs in East Europe and contrasts that with the potential development in the EC. The input sectors considered are, animal feed, animal health and veterinary products, fertiliser, machinery, agrochemicals and seeds. The time horizon considered is 2000 to 2005 beyond the current and short term turmoil and set-backs. Animal health and agrochemical products are likely to demonstrate the largest shift in balance of relative size of market in favour of the East. In contrast seeds will not change markedly in the balance between East and West. Some greater emphasis of fertiliser towards the East may be expected. Animal feed use will change its balance with a greater relative emphasis on the EC. Input manufacturer strategists also have to take into account farm structure developments and their impact on distribution needs. The pattern of reducing tariffs on trade and increase ad hoc use of non-tariff, technical barriers to trade will be dynamic and difficult to predict in detail. Downstream food chain revitalisation will also play an important role in impeding or encouraging agricultural input use. The conclusion is that resource allocation for long term strategy realisation can be more refined than a pure chance decision and evaluation of the politics and economics is worthwhile.
This paper describes a method of research which has proved very successful in different sectors (agrochemicals, animal health products, machinery) and in different European countries. It enables manufacturers or national distributors to identify the needs of their dealers (or co-operatives) and to evaluate the comparative ranking of their ability to satisfy these needs in relation to competitive manufacturer.