Agencies specialising in pharmaceutical market research are operating in an increasingly complex market, a trend which is expected to continue as the healthcare environment evolves. The purpose of this paper is to bring forward the hypothesis that to remain competitive and ensure future success, pharmaceutical market research agencies or partners within agencies will need to become more specialised, either in particular therapeutic or geographical areas or methodological research approaches, as their role changes from a data supplier towards that of a consultant. To bolster this hypothesis, some results will be included from a primary research study which was conducted with market research executives from both pharmaceutical firms and market research agencies. This research was carried out by mail and results (responses) reflect the beliefs of 25 market research executives from the pharma industry and 9 market research executives from pharma research agencies. This corresponds to a 22 % reponse rate and a 29 % response rate for each group respectively. Even though the results of the primary research are limited as to their quantitative use (the exact sample composition is not known) they bring some interesting aspects and ideas forward related to the topic of this paper, and have for this reason been included where appropriate.
The paper describes a case study carried out in 1994 to examine the potential for a number of new possible line extensions (formulations) of an existing product. Management required an extremely accurate forecast of the likely impact of the new forms on existing business, the degree of cannibalisation that would result and the impact on other competitors. Major investment decisions were likely to hinge on the outcome. Qualitative focus groups conducted in four countries with patients and physicians were able to identify four possible line extension candidates for the Janssen product. A major quantitative study involving 758 physicians and 489 patients was later conducted. A variety of novel approaches were used in order to address the marketing objectives. These involved doctors actually mapping themselves the likely market positions of the new forms, the use of a Choice Based Conjoint approach and the association of the new forms with various words and phrases. The new forms were assessed on the basis of: a written concept -photographs of packaging -placebo forms to taste a series of market scenarios, the preference shares for the new forms were established and converted into an approximate market share estimate. A multi data source modelling process was then set up in order to convert the primary research data into a market model which takes into account pricing, promotion, demographics of the population, etc. The forecasting model was installed at both the local offices of Janssen and at the corporate headquarters to facilitate increased understanding of the impact of each form, taking account of the local market situations. Despite the complexity of the marketing objectives, it was possible to prioritise the range of opportunities which existed, and identify the impact on the existing brand. Over the longer term, the result highlighted the value of certain line extensions as a means of broadening the product range to reduce the vulnerability of the brand to generic alternatives.
The paper reports the results of a detailed study of the cardiovascular marketplace in Russia. This was a diary study executed among 97 generalists and 50 specialists working in polyclinics across Russia. The study covered all aspects of 2,367 patient visits, including comprehensive patient details, risk factors, symptomatology, condition[s] treated and the drug or drugs started, switched and/or continued. Further, details of the doctors treating each patient were also collected so that data could be cross-analysed by doctor characteristics. Key findings included the very young age of the cardiovascular patients, a high diagnosing level of ischaemic heart disease (IHD), a low frequency of cholesterol testing and the high usage of very old drugs (notably reserpine) at the expense of expensive, newer products. These results, where appropriate, are also compared with findings from analogous studies in other countries. Finally, and in order to give some insight into the workings of front-line medicine in Russia, general information about how the patient-doctor relationship works in Russia also forms an important part of this paper.
Intrinsic drug factors consist of all the properties of drugs that determine its clinical profile. There is usually a large amount of clinical data available at the moment of market introduction of a new drug. From these data a clinical profile can be composed, that makes it possible to compare the product with competitors. The product profile is the basis for important decisions concerning the marketing of the product. Frequently lacking is a demonstration of the relevance of the different drug attributes in therapeutical decision making. Prescriber scaling of intrinsic drug factors is introduced as a method for identifying the more important dimensions of a clinical product profile. If performed by medical experts the results provide important information that can be used to make predictions about market adoption of new products and to optimize marketing decisions in general.
I plan to share with you some innovative market research completed to help us estimate the dollar potential for a prescription "weight loss" product in Europe using only medical promotional efforts. Our hypothesis was that even though we did not anticipate the product to be reimbursed, patients would be willing to pay a "considerable sum" for the product. Our European and corporate management in general did not agree with this hypothesis or assumption. The concern about overweight one could argue has become almost more of a social issue than a medical concern. People are spending significant amounts of money on exercise programs and diet plans without receiving reimbursement in both Europe and the U.S. A pill represents a convenient way to lose weight when combined with other changes in behavior. The market research effort combined secondary and primary research with both physician and patients to determine market potential in the U.K., Spain, Italy and Germany. What also is interesting about this project is the relationship we had with our market research agency, Adelphi International Research; and how the results "influenced" our European and corporate senior management. For confidentiality purposes, we will not share the actual results of the study; but will discuss what I would call the creative "out of the box" market research thinking that was done. Some pharmaceutical forecasters are saying by the year 2000 that many therapeutic classes, other than those that are "lifesaving" will no longer be reimbursed in Europe.
This paper outlines a largely personal view of the challenges facing marketing researchers and their colleagues in pharmaceutical companies and the actions that deserve priority. Preparation of the paper has been assisted by discussions with senior executives in pharmaceutical companies and agencies. The strategic responses of companies to the threats and opportunities facing the industry vary greatly and the implications for those in marketing research and related services are far from consistent. There is evidence from other industries that internal marketing research departments of companies are under threat and in many single country pharmaceutical companies there are no specialist marketing researchers. This leads to a need for head-office help and a responsible approach from agencies.
Estimations of the potential market volume for new products should be developed from clinical and epidemiological data (number of patients) as a basis, rather applying straightforward estimations of sales volumes. The goals of the study presented here were twofold: Estimate the number of patients suffering from specific fungal infections Develop an operating procedure to estimate the incidence and prevalence figures for systemic mycosis for published clinical and epidemiological data. The technical difficulty was to put the pieces of information together in an appropriate manner, in order to obtain reliable and reproducible data. As a part of the project some operating procedures for the retrieval, selection and documentation (single item references) were established. To ensure the best possible quality of data, the estimation and forecasting of mean lower and upper bound for data values was required. Some basic guidelines for data selection and data modelling were developed. The database software was chosen with respect to easy handling, updating and viewing of data.
Structured and systematic monitoring of the competition is increasingly becoming a key means of assuring a company's success. While the collection and processing of relevant data is still relatively easy, analysis and interpretation of relevant information is problematic. In an information system, which necessarily must be computer-aided, integration of qualitative data (textual information) is a tremendous challenge. This is especially TRUE if the system is not intended to inform and report on competitor companies but to be a decision-making aid. The design and potential uses of this type of system will be elucidated by means of the example of MARIS SCORING, the tool used by the medical Division of the Beiersdorf AG for competitor analysis.
The aim of this paper is to examine how pharmaceutical forecasting is currently conducted, from different clients' perspectives, to stimulate discussion and to make recommendations about how the practice could be improved. Pharmaceutical forecasting, indeed any forecasting, is viewed by the majority of people we have spoken to, as being one of the more difficult tasks they undertake. There appears to be a considerable amount of mystique surrounding forecasting and it is our objective, within the realms of this paper, to de-mystify pharmaceutical forecasting. The paper is divided into three parts. The first part examines how pharmaceutical forecasting is currently conducted for both pipe-line and marketed products, and is based upon the combined views of executives from twelve major pharmaceutical companies, both in Europe and the USA. The second part describes an original piece of ad hoc marketing research which we conducted to collect information to build a forecast for a product in development in the neurology field. The final part explores views about how pharmaceutical forecasting should be conducted and makes some recommendations about how it could be improved.
The paper is divided into four main sections. The Methodology describes the data upon which the analyses were based and explains the theoretical background to the approach adopted. The Results are then presented to show how large and small drugs differ and the brand performance measures for a specific drug are presented and explained. The Discussion interprets these results in the light of the theory that has been developed in other markets and also discusses the underlying causes of the patterns of brand performance, the individual behaviour of prescribers. The final section looks at some specific Applications of the approach adopted and outlines some practical examples of how managers could use the concepts presented in this paper.
As decision-making for prescription pharmaceuticals becomes increasingly pluralistic, forecasting the market share of a new product or line extension is more difficult than ever, especially in global, international applications. This paper presents a model that parameterizes the decision-making process for each element in the process and then integrates them into a comprehensive market forecasting system.
This paper will mainly show the actual interest patients feel towards the instructions but also the difficulties they face in trying to understand them accurately and will suggest ways to eliminate these problems. At the suggestion of the Austrian Pharmaceutical Market Research Agency Fessel+GfK carried out a survey to find out how the consumers feel about patient-information. We did this by asking a number of 1.000 persons over 14 representative for the whole of Austria. All this tells us clearly that we are facing here two major contradictory problems: On one hand there is the existing interest patients show towards learning the instructions. On the other hand we are presented with the difficulties they have to overcome when trying to understand them correctly. However no matter how worry some these difficulties might appear there is a relatively simple solution at hand which we feel is very encouraging. Reducing the complexity of the wording and providing a clearer visibility of the text will certainly lead to a better comprehension on the part of the patient a higher degree of compliance with doctors' orders and more overall confidence in physicians and in the pharmaceutical industries' effectiveness.