The authors of this paper consider that they encountered the challenge during the Seventies and that it is appropriate for them to recount their experience for the benefit of those of their fellows who have not been confronted with it as yet. Apart from this desire to share experience - and perhaps even more motivating still, they hope that the paper will arouse a feed-back of information and reaction. The ambitions of the paper are threefold: - To draw attention to the increasing relevancy of simulation models in a market environment that is undergoing radical change and to the usefulness of such models both for market researchers and for decision-makers generally; - To illustrate, by a case study, the manner in which these models can be constructed; - To demonstrate the fact that these models can make an effective contribution in actual practice.
The aim of this paper is to indicate a path different from that shown in previous studies done on the economic slowdown, taking into account the real changes which have occurred in the field of advertising research, and notably in the relationship between agency and advertiser. Our methodology consists of an analysis of the current situation, complemented by an exploratory study conducted through in-depth interviews with a sample of experts, i.e. professional researchers: fifteen employed by advertisers, and eight by advertising agencies. They were chosen from certain sectors affected by the crisis, such as paper products, foods and household equipment, or from sectors, such as banking, whose advertising budgets are tied to "hot" products.
The aim of this paper is to indicate a path different from that shown in previous studies done on the economic slowdown, taking into account the real changes which have occurred in the field of advertising research, and notably in the relationship between agency and advertiser. Our methodology consists of an analysis of the current situation, complemented by an exploratory study conducted through in-depth interviews with a sample of experts, i.e. professional researchers: fifteen employed by advertisers, and eight by advertising agencies. They were chosen from certain sectors affected by the crisis, such as paper products, foods and household equipment, or from sectors, such as banking, whose advertising budgets are tied to "hot" products.
This theoretical paper analyses and forecasts the future of market research methods (products) such as survey research, qualitative research or model building research as well as the future of market research applications (markets) such as consumer behavior, social problems, and mass media. The fundamental proposition of the paper is that we must look at the demand-oriented factors which generate the need for a particular market research product or market as well as supply-oriented factors which indicate the extent to which market researchers can efficiently satisfy the demand. The demand-oriented factors are anchored to the concept of product life cycle and the degree of maturity of a market research product or market. The supply-oriented factors are anchored to the concept of economies of scale and cost effectiveness of a research product or for a research market.
In the course of the readership analysis of medical journals in 1977 (LA-MED 77), a number of methodical experiments were carried out in addition to the standard interview with the aim of supporting the existing methods and acquiring additional information concerning reading habits. One of these experiments involved the attempt to acquire readership data with the aid of a diary. This diary experiment was run with approximately N=100 physicians who were recruited as a sub-sample out of the large main study involving N=2.000. As a result we had at our disposal for purposes of comparison the statements from the main interview and those from the diary from identical persons.
In the course of the readership analysis of medical journals in 1977 (LA-MED 77), a number of methodical experiments were carried out in addition to the standard interview with the aim of supporting the existing methods and acquiring additional information concerning reading habits. One of these experiments involved the attempt to acquire readership data with the aid of a diary. This diary experiment was run with approximately N=100 physicians who were recruited as a sub-sample out of the large main study involving N=2.000. As a result we had at our disposal for purposes of comparison the statements from the main interview and those from the diary from identical persons.
It is interesting to note that computerized information retrieval is both the source of the problem and its solution. By this I mean that the availability of vast quantities of information is made possible by the databanks while, in turn, methods of on- line retrieval and other sophisticated computer technologies provide the means to organize the data in a systematic fashion, thus providing for marketing management not only information, but information systems. I propose to demonstrate this thesis by depicting a day in market research in September, 1989 a decade after the XXXII Congress. In the course of this description, the impact of several new on-line technologies which constitute the backbone of marketing management information systems will be noted â selective dissemination of information (SDI), point-of-sale terminals, cable television feedback, automated reports, and conference modelling.
The present paper describes a programme of research set up to aid decision-making about the potential use of advertising to combat vandalism. Starting from a review of the current state of knowledge, research was designed to fill in some of the gaps in knowledge quickly and to provide evidence on whether advertising could help if so how it should be approached. Subsequently research contributed to the design and evaluation of a anti-vandalism campaign.
This paper suggests that there is a genuine difference between people's "private opinions" and their "public opinions"; but the requirements of media contests will force research methods to concentrate almost entirely on "public opinion". The danger is that one set of misleading findings will be publicly opposed by another set, and as a result seriously damage the reputation of market research in general. One important challenge of the eighties will be to identify these risks and to agree on a realistic code of practice to deal with them.
The opportunities for research in the 1980s will be much affected by changes in society. In particular, by a clash between two powerful forces: the producer bureaucracy and the new individualism. It will be a clash of values and opinions and research will be needed to measure them. However, I believe there are dangers in the way that opinion research will be used, and especially in the way that it will be publicised. The protagonists in the arguments on many social issues are likely to make increasing use of published "research events" â that is, over-simplified and superficial figures on public opinion, designed mainly to appeal to the media's need for simple and dramatic news, and thence to affect public policies. I think, in fact, that the evidence is very strong that there is a genuine difference between people's private opinions and their public opinions. But the requirements of media contests will tend to force research methods to concentrate heavily on public opinions. The danger is not so much that this would distort social policies (though it might) as that it could damage the reputation of market research in general, especially if, as is likely, the findings of one group's "research eventsâ appeared to be directly opposed to those of another's. One important challenge of the 1980s will be to identify these risks and do something to guard against them. As a start to the discussion, I have suggested five simple guidelines which I hope can contribute to a joint campaign to educate ourselves, our clients and the media in the proper use and presentation of opinion research.
In recent years in the United States, we have witnessed rapid growth in the use of telephone interviewing in survey research. A major element of this growth has been the substitution of telephone inter- view procedures for the (apparently) more costly, more intrusive personal interview. New techniques have been developed to make the most effective use of this medium. Sampling techniques have been devised to insure that all telephone households, not just directory listed households, are sampled. Other procedures serve to minimize the number of calls to non-household numbers (numbers which may be assigned to business establishments or which may not be assigned at all.) Perhaps the most dramatic development of all has been of computer-assisted telephone interviewing. Several approaches have been described in the literature. All include the simple procedure of having the interviewer seated in front of a cathode ray tube terminal reading the question on the screen to the respondent, and recording the response via the terminal's keyboard. The use of a well-designed computer-assisted telephone interviewing system provides many benefits to the survey organization, and, ultimately, to its clients.
This contribution describes a methodological test conducted by the Institut fur Demoskopie Allensbach in conjunction with Produkt+Markt, Gesellschaft fUr Marktforschung und Markefing-Planung mbH & Co. and commissioned by the Association of German Cooperative Banks. The purpose of the study was to clarify whether surveys using phone interviews and self-administered questionnaires are appropriate methods for analyzing local bank competition. This subject became topical because the standard surveys conducted by the Institute for approximately ten year, which are based on face-to-face interviews, are too expensive for many smaller cooperative banks. It was accepted in this context that the investigation program had to be trimmed and adapted to the conditions of surveys using telephone interviews and self-administered questionnaires. However, the quality of the information received in this manner did have to satisfy the requirement of providing a reliable basis for marketing decisions the banks have to make. The test showed that surveys using telephone interviews and self-administered questionnaires by and large satisfied this requirement.