This paper is concerned with the rapid growth of survey research on public policy issues commissioned for the private use of companies and corporate management during the 1970's. It discusses the reasons for this growth (which has taken place mainly, but not only, in the United States), the reasons why companies are spending more and more money for this type of research, and the different ways in which the survey findings have been used.
9 out of 10 voters can position themselves on a left / right semantic differential scale. Some 30% choose for the center position. The scale-positions largely explain party-choice in elections as well as perceptions of political entities such as parties and political leaders. The frequency distributions between left and right are highly stable over time. The tendency to shift in either direction (if forced to do so) changes slightly more in successive surveys. On the whole polarisation-simulation favours the right, both over all and in the political center. The middle-of-the readers are being further analysed. They show both scepticism and low political interest but also a relatively open mind. Since many of them go and vote they do decide about parliamentary stalemate or workable majorities. They tend to attribute authority to politically less involved leaders and there appear to be political program items that appeal to the political center more than to other voters.
Observation of the behaviour, attitudes and opinions, among other things, of a population can be done to achieve many objectives. Much of such studies belong to the field of market research, and much to social research. Opinion polling is included in the social research field, but is distinguished as a sub-category by its direct relevance to a national or other political process. The distinction is not always clear; for instance a survey on attitudes to abortion need or need not fall into the opinion polling category according to whether or not abortion is currently a matter of political debate. But it can also be said that like genius, or sex appeal, an opinion poll is difficult to define but easy to recognise when you see it. Typically, opinion polls relate to possible voting behaviour, attitudes to political personalities and issues. As such their existence round the world, so say nothing of what they do, reveals interesting patterns.
The outcome of the Austrian national referendum against the operation of the nuclear power plant in Zwentendorf did not only turn out as a surprise for the Austrian political scene but has also been referred to, as a remarkable event on the international level. The nuclear power issue in Austria gained special actuality due to the fact that the referendum took place only a few months prior to the general election. The present paper presents the development of the climate of opinion before the national referendum, further demonstrates and analyzes the influence of the nuclear power issue on the attitudes and actual voting behaviour of the Austrian electorate during the national election using data of political survey research. In addition to content-specific and socio-psychological aspects methodological problems connected with public opinion polling are also taken into consideration.
In the weeks just prior to the British general election of May 1979 Research Services Ltd. conducted a series of four surveys for a London Sunday newspaper, the Observer. In some ways, there was nothing unusual about the four surveys. They were of a kind often conducted by polling organisations for newspapers and television networks during election campaigns; the samples were not especially large, and nothing new was attempted in the way of interviewing techniques. In other ways, however, the RSL/Observer undertaking was unusual, possibly unique.
The German Law on the European Election does not contain any provisions concerning the publication of results from surveys conducted among voters during the European Parliament election in June 1979. The national laws in Europe vary considerably. While in Great Britain and in the Netherlands publication of voter surveys even on election day is common practice, France has prohibited the publication of election forecasts based on opinion polls 14 days prior to the election.
In 1945 on July 5th, the day of Britain's post-war general election the News Chronicle published a poll which said that the Conservatives would get 41 per cent of the vote and Labour would get 47 per cent. Now, everybody in Britain knew that Mr. Churchill was going to win the post-war election and everybody in Britain who saw that poll knew that it was one of these new-fangled gimmicks which was obviously wrong. And the News Chronicle itself said, "While we have no reason to disbelieve these poll figures, the British electoral system is such a lottery that you cannot in the least predict the outcome of the election from these polling figures."
This paper addresses itself to the factors underlying the rapid change in the attitudes held by the Irish media toward political opinion polling. It draws on data derived from the continuous IMS Political Monitor (established in 1974). It also describes the problems of political polling in a country with a "two and one-half partyâ line-up (lacking a traditional Left-Right dimension) and a unique electoral system of proportional representation.
Values are regarded as ordering principles for social action. This explains some of the scientific attention value problems have recently received. Is social change promoted by and linked to change in values? Are there both changeable and unchangeable values? Politically motivated research on basic values is a good indicator of the uneasiness among elites about social change too rapid and too encompassing to be fully understood. Intercultural comparison seeks to find common values. Widespread acceptance of values, however, does not necessarily mean that we are dealing with basic human goals. Additive research into values or certain value areas does not provide an answer to the question as to what the basic constituents of value systems are. In other words: are there central and irreducible structures in human values? I should like to propose certain theories as means to organize our experience and our empirical evidence about the value systems in different political and social cultures.
Students of public opinion are well aware that important differences exist in people's involvement with the major (social) issues of the day. The concept of involvement has no scientific status in the social sciences, and there has been no endeavour to measure this kind of involvement in any systematic way. Based on a theory of involvement, we have developed a program of measurement for (the various dimensions of) involvement. (MDMI) It is argued that : 1. The system is highly suitable for obtaining continuous measures of involvement with social issues (problems) amongst the population; 2. To measure an important modifying variable to assist in the interpretation of public opinion research data; 3. To develop a general, empirically verified theory concerning involvement with social issues.
Keynote address of the Seminar 1980 on Opinion Polls.
I should like to spend a little time not talking so much about the finer statistics of "Sunday Times" polling when the "Sunday Times" is being published, but about some of the more general problems that we have had in recent years in the British Press. Yesterday one of the speakers accused the Press - not just the British Press - of treating polling during election campaigns as a horse race. I have news for you: it is a horse race. Anybody who thinks that journalism during an election campaign is not ver largely about that horse race; and anybody who thinks that the reason why newspapers spend money on polls is other than principally to analyse the progress of that horse race and predict their result as accurately as possible, is just not living in the world of journalistic considerations and newspaper budgets.