Like most European countries, Britain has attempted in recent years to attack discrimination against women, both by introducing penalties for discrimination, and by taking positive action to relieve disabilities which cause underachievement by women in society. The survey now reported was envisaged as a vehicle for providing such essential informations about the employment of women.
In this paper those stories are called paradigms or world views, but I am saying the same thing: a fundamental shift in basic beliefs and assumptions about the nature of things and the human condition is going on. Because those beliefs and assumptions are among the foundations of human existence, when they change, radical shifts in individual values and societal conditions will follow. This paper presents the thesis that such a paradigm shift is under way and explores the potential consequences of that change.
In the industrialized modem society developments seem to occur as an autonomous process. They do not of course actually become such. A development in a particular direction is the result of a series of decisions. Behind every decision is a person or a group of people and behind those people is an interest. Therefore, the key problem of the gap between new needs and existing structures is insufficient decision-making. The new values people are seeking get too few possibilities in a society dominated by science and technique. The voice of action groups and their gradually increasing influence, environmental impact statements, the hesitantly established assessments of technical developments, they represent weak and no more than beginning answers to signals of social change which can be heard louder and clearer every year.
The concept of a planned shopping centre appears to be an American one. Thus we have the seeds of the 'planned shopping centres' as we now understand the phrase.
I want to dwell here, focusing on the case of France and drawing upon observational data accumulated by the 3 SC system (COFREMCA System for Monitoring Socio-Cultural Change). I shall begin by attempting to describe, in very broad terms, recent socio-cultural trends in France, and to give some idea of the way these trends affect relations between the French and their government and politics. In the second part, I shall briefly outline some of the challenges to government that have been identified by a number of strategic analysis units.
The term scenario is familiar to those involved in forecasting, but too few people are aware of what exactly a scenario is, or how it can best be developed and applied. The author describes a method developed over several years in response to a need which most forecasting efforts have left unfulfilled. The method enables quantitative and qualitative forecasts to be combined in a manner which can be directly related to an organisations planning and decision-making processes, and which permits the evaluation of a companys objectives and performance in the light of those forecasts. The analysis of an organisations likely performance in given scenarios can, in turn, provide a basis for contingency planning.
The working group concentrated its discussion on two main subjects. These were: 1. The rise of the pressure group and the political and research implications of this. 2. The problems of persuading governments to take action on the findings of social research.
The starting point for our discussion was the recognition that social change is proceeding faster than at any time in human history. Politicians, administrators, and those involved in the political process are therefore like managers of industrial and commercial establishments in this respect: their 'microcosm' of the world around them, being dependent on previous experience and earlier learning, risks loss of touch with the real world. The role of social researchers is to help those involved in the political process to improve the correspondence between the microcosm and reality. Social research can perform this role in two ways. The first, which is the approach mainly adopted in the papers of this seminar, is the description and analysis of social attitudes and behaviour, over time. The second, which received little attention, is the evaluation of public policy, of the actions of government, extending possibly to the evaluation of social experiments. The second role is perhaps more closely.
Individual needs are changing at a greater rate than in the past. Changes in individual needs flow from changes in values. Changes in values are caused by a combination of general (economic, political, societal and demographic) and specific (cultural and experiential) factors. Both sets of factors inter-relate and inter-react.
Report of the working group on the papers from Maggie Stanway and Yves Evrard.
In developing scenarios, the four main areas generally considered are economics, technology, society, politics. Business is accustomed to relating the potential state of the economy to its operations in terms of business confidence; willingness and ability to invest; availability of finance; interest rates; inflation and so forth. Similarly, in areas of technological change, the technologies examined are generally competitive or complementary and are evaluated in terms of their feasibility, acceptability, cost, etc. These two areas can be related quite clearly to the functions of finance, investment, RSD and strategic planning.