Combine harvester sales can be linked to total arable area, the changes in the cropping patterns, the number of holdings (and the changes in farm size), farmers incomes and expected priorities in their investment decisions. At New Holland we have developed several scenario's to predict the impact of the set-aside policy in agriculture. We also developed three models to forecast in which direction the industry might restructure. The scenario analysis proved to be a valuable tool to grasp the impact of E. C. policy decisions on the farm machinery industry. Decisions on production capacity and the location of manufacturing plants can be taken with more confidence.