Speech from Kancho Stoychev, President, Gallup International Association, Bulgaria.
My topic is a relatively new type of opinion polling - the pro bono survey. Pro bono surveys are increasingly common in the U.S. and they represent an important form of publicly disseminated polling. I will discuss the general topic and then tell you about one example of such a study: "The People and The Press" which Gallup conducted tor the Times Mirror Corporation.
The paper presents a model for investigating the don't know phenomenon in the elections. The model distinguishes four different types of don't know voters according to the way people are stopped or remain stopped in the elections. The testing of the model proves that different cognitive modes exist singly and in combinations among respondents and that there are differences over time in the way people orient themselves to the campaign. Even a part of those who are supposed to be "the decidedâ prove not to be that certain. The results also show that different types of donât know voters differ in the way they follow the campaign in the media.
Contrary to popular belief the 1960's, with the Beatles and the Rolling Stones, were not the boom era of the recorded music industry - this happened in the late 1970's. In 1978 retail sales of recorded music were £596 million (at 1983 prices) and this fell to £488 million in 1983 - a decline of 18 per cent in real terms. The recession had clearly affected the industry.
Western Europe, viewed from overseas, appears to be a homogenous group of countries linked in harmonious union. Nine countries are linked, politically and economically through the European Economic Community and a further six through E.F.T.A. - The European Free Trade Association. When subject to closer scrutiny, however, the myth of homogeneity is replaced by a complex system of economic, political and social relationships.
Elements of the design and operation of large scale surveys introduce sources of error not adequately dealt with in normal textbook formulae. Nevertheless, it is often possible by comparing the results of replicated surveys to arrive at objective and empirical estimates of accuracy and lack of bias in such surveys. Further, it is necessary to do this to convince our clients of the reliability of our work. Apart from the reliability of a survey, it should also be sensitive to changes in the situation. Examples of the sensitivity of opinion polls are given indicating how substantial variability and unpredictability in the way people's views respond to outside events implies that predictive models, especially in the course of an electoral campaign are fraught with danger. The unpredictable electorate reigns supreme and the opinion polls can only reflect, with as short a time lag as possible, the present rather than the future state of public opinion.
Advertising performance is probably the most discussed subject amongst marketing and advertising people, particularly in the pharmaceutical field. This paper discusses the way that Ciba-Geigy and their advertising agency, the General Advertising Company of London Limited, measure advertising effectiveness, collate and store this data, and use the cumulated data base to optimise media scheduling and improve advertising effectiveness. Additionally, the paper discusses the way that this unique data base can be used to quantify the effects of alternative advertising and media strategies, and provide a clearer scenario for decision making.
The study from which this paper has been written was conducted on behalf of Radio Luxembourg (London) Limited, part of Compagnie Luxembourgeoise de Teledifussion's television and radio service. In 1979 Radio Luxembourg commissioned Social Surveys (Gallup Poll) Limited to conduct a programming study to assess the requirement from an evening radio station among persons available to listen at that time. As a result of the study the station was re-programmed and with the aid of advertising/marketing the decline in audience was reversed. Similar studies were conducted in 1980 and 1981 with subsequent minor amendments to programming to take account of changing tastes, and the station has maintained its higher audience levels.
The marketing objectives and programming output for a radio station never remain the same, neither do the problems. But the research programme set up in 1979 has proved to be an accurate and flexible instrument. Radio Tele Luxembourg is firmly convinced that it would not be possible to programme, market or sell the 208 English Service without the benefit of a continuing research programme.
Observation of the behaviour, attitudes and opinions, among other things, of a population can be done to achieve many objectives. Much of such studies belong to the field of market research, and much to social research. Opinion polling is included in the social research field, but is distinguished as a sub-category by its direct relevance to a national or other political process. The distinction is not always clear; for instance a survey on attitudes to abortion need or need not fall into the opinion polling category according to whether or not abortion is currently a matter of political debate. But it can also be said that like genius, or sex appeal, an opinion poll is difficult to define but easy to recognise when you see it. Typically, opinion polls relate to possible voting behaviour, attitudes to political personalities and issues. As such their existence round the world, so say nothing of what they do, reveals interesting patterns.
The London Transport Executive is a very important media owner. Gallup, who had previously worked with the LTE on commercial evaluation of posters, was asked if it could assess the extent to which posters shocked or offended the public. A form of hall test was developed, in which adults were invited to express their views of a set of posters chosen to be near the borderline. This indicated guidelines by which posters could be assessed. The experiment was repeated at a London comprehensive school using some posters already tested with adults and some new ones to get the reactions of school children. The findings were somewhat different from those expected. Children were far more sensitive than adults thought in some areas, and less in others. The paper illustrates the findings in the four areas surveyed, namely: Pregnancy and abortion, underwear, sex/comedy films, and violent films.