The subject of this paper is a double one. The first intention is to try to find out what the Germans have done and are doing as far as travel and tourism is concerned and in the second part of this paper I want to develop some ideas of what might be done to evaluate the future development of German tourism and travel. The second part should be of equal interest to operators of travel and tourism and to the carriers. There might also be some hints for the travel-bureaux offering tourist advice and booking facilities.
I think that this seminar has provided just that, a stimulus for further thinking and research, I think that many of us, if they have not learned a lot, certainly have been awakened, to a number of aspects of the question which preoccupied us all during our seminar.
The door to forecasting opens more easily for the layman if he studies the foundations on which the question of forecasting is based. It means looking in to the future. The various methods of forecasting differ basically only in the way this search is carried out, i.e. in its degree of its complexity, not, however, which equations or which statistical aids are used. It is important which ideas concerning the connexion between, and the significance of, the forces are used as a basis, and the requirements as to reliability and accuracy, and last but not least, the degree of difficulty with which the calculation is made, or will be made, for instance in regard to the acquisition of data or the time available for making the forecast. The importance of this part of the techniques of forecasting cannot be too highly emphasised. However carefully a model is conceived, the difficulties of the forecaster really only begin when he is faced with that part of the job in which the model is fed with empirical data from the actuality of the business world which have to be made real to life. If one tries to trace the forecast back to its source, using engineering practice , one encounters the expression 'extrapolation'. Because of its character, each forecast is an extrapolation, however well it may be disguised by clever and complicated model constructions.
The prospects in consumer research over the next few years are likely to be governed primarily by the changing and developing needs of industry. These needs in turn are largely determined by major economic and social trends, such as increasingly active competition, the increasing tempo of marketing, the closer economic contacts in the Western world and increasing populations and living standards. Industry will look more and more to consumer research for still better help and guidance, not only in coping with its day-to-day marketing problems, but also in giving direction to long-term plans in such fields as capital investment and technical research. It may be helpful to look at this situation from the viewpoint of the user of consumer research, particularly of companies manufacturing and marketing mass market, non-durable and branded consumer goods. In this paper it is proposed to discuss some of the main problem areas where industry hopes and expects to get still more effective help from consumer research during the next few years, which will assist commercial judgement and reduce business risks. The direction which this help is already taking can be illustrated by reference to the papers which will constitute the balance of this session.
The prospects in consumer research over the next few years are likely to be governed primarily by the changing and developing needs of industry. These needs in turn are largely determined by major economic and social trends, such as increasingly active competition, the increasing tempo of marketing, the closer economic contacts in the Western world and increasing populations and living standards. Industry will look more and more to consumer research for still better help and guidance, not only in coping with its day-to-day marketing problems, but also in giving direction to long-term plans in such fields as capital investment and technical research. It may be helpful to look at this situation from the viewpoint of the user of consumer research, particularly of companies manufacturing and marketing mass market, non-durable and branded consumer goods. In this paper it is proposed to discuss some of the main problem areas where industry hopes and expects to get still more effective help from consumer research during the next few years, which will assist commercial judgement and reduce business risks. The direction which this help is already taking can be illustrated by reference to the papers which will constitute the balance of this session.
Market research for raw materials, investments, capital goods etc. is of a highly pragmatic mature. This can best be demonstrated by a case history. In describing what the industrial market researcher actually does, the specific difficulties one encounters and the numerous research approaches that are available automatically will be described. The actual study we will describe deals with estimating the future market of yarns in automobile tires. A short technical introduction probably is useful. An automobile tire is made out of three maim components: rubber, carcass and heel. The rubber component is the only visible from outside. Actually the rubber is vulcanised to a heavy carcass made out of rayon, nylon, cotton or steel wire, while the heel: two steel wire rings for fitting the tires to the wheel, is another essential part. In our study we have not been dealing with rubber and heel, but with the inner structure, the carcass only.
Market research for raw materials, investments, capital goods etc. is of a highly pragmatic mature. This can best be demonstrated by a case history. In describing what the industrial market researcher actually does, the specific difficulties one encounters and the numerous research approaches that are available automatically will be described. The actual study we will describe deals with estimating the future market of yarns in automobile tires. A short technical introduction probably is useful. An automobile tire is made out of three maim components: rubber, carcass and heel. The rubber component is the only visible from outside. Actually the rubber is vulcanised to a heavy carcass made out of rayon, nylon, cotton or steel wire, while the heel: two steel wire rings for fitting the tires to the wheel, is another essential part. In our study we have not been dealing with rubber and heel, but with the inner structure, the carcass only.
Social studies are a recent development in Spain and Market Research even m«re so. It is not within our scope to give the reasons for Spainss lagging behind' the other western countries in this field. Market research really has no history. Up to just a few years ago, nothing had been done in this field apart from sales statistics or more or less theoretical surveys carried out by personnel of private concerns. The present position of research in Spain is favourable to accelerated development in both the social and the market fields, A real need in the new Spanish social set-up and a keen desire to keep with universal trends combine to make the practice of these studies increasingly urgent.
Social studies are a recent development in Spain and Market Research even m«re so. It is not within our scope to give the reasons for Spainss lagging behind' the other western countries in this field. Market research really has no history. Up to just a few years ago, nothing had been done in this field apart from sales statistics or more or less theoretical surveys carried out by personnel of private concerns. The present position of research in Spain is favourable to accelerated development in both the social and the market fields, A real need in the new Spanish social set-up and a keen desire to keep with universal trends combine to make the practice of these studies increasingly urgent.