This paper is an attempt to discuss the concept of validation when applied to marketing models. It is suggested that "validity" is a highly complex notion that the marketing scientists inherited from various other disciplines. Unfortunately, pre-existing conceptions about validity bear little relevance to the specificity of the marketing context, hence a new framework is proposed in order to take into account the requirements of this context when validating a marketing model. Various aspects of marketing models verification are reviewed and a taxonomy of approaches to validation operations is put forward. The second half of the paper is devoted to a practical example of a validation exercise dealing with a micro-model of the new product adoption process; special emphasis is given to the role of management in specifying and carrying out the validation task.
In this paper we examine a number of issues concerning the validation of two types of macro models: Aggregate response models, and aggregate flow models. The discussion is preceded by some remarks about model construction. The validation process is considered to consist of two steps: model fit and model prediction. Model fit will mostly involve econometric techniques as far as aggregate response models are concerned, tracking or trial-and-error-estimation for aggregate flow models. We will emphasise the need for good data and will argue for increasing the frequency of observations. The second step, model prediction, is in many cases not carried out by lack of data. A brief discussion is given of an empirical study about the relationship between market share and outlet share for the gasoline market in a European country.
The purpose in presenting this paper is to show how a pioneer method of sampling was carried out, how it was validated and the implications of this validation on tourism studies. Before going into the details of the method it might be of help if some of the background to this particular study was sketched out. The tourist resort concerned was Guernsey and at this juncture it would be appropriate to extend grateful acknowledgements to The States of Guernsey Tourist Committee and to The British Tourist Authority for their permission to give this paper and thanks for their help in preparing it.