With only a few weeks to go before the U.S. presidential election, Americans are facing the potential for a long and protracted period of uncertainty about the outcome. Will Donald Trump be elected for four more years or will the American voters make a change and elect Joe Biden? In this webinar, North American and International pollsters will share their views on where the race stands, what seem to be the central issues, and how - and when - it's all likely to end.Voter Priorities, Battleground States, and Other Assorted Things to Keep Your Eye On The 2020 US Presidential Electionby Clifford Young, President, Public Affairs, Ipsos USAPollsters confront new challenges in every election, but perhaps never as many as they do in 2020. This presentation summarizes those challenges, with new data and warnings for analysts.Who gets the ballot box bonus?by Jean-Marc Leger, President, Leger Market Research and AnalyticsIt will all come down to voter enthusiasm. Assessing voter turnout is a key factor in allowing polls to be close to the election's results, especially in battleground states. Jean-Marc Leger will present his innovative techniques to better evaluate voter turnout and improve the accuracy of election polling.Identifying Voters and Reporting the Votes Before, On, and Even After Election DayBy Joe Lenski, Co-founder and Executive Vice President, Edison ResearchThe election isn't over until we know the winner. This year increases in vote by mail, the coronavirus pandemic and campaign attacks on the process may make reporting the results more difficult than ever. What tools- old and new- are being used to know the voting outcome? From The Red Wall To The Rust Belt - How Forgotten Communities In The UK and The US Flexed Their Political MuscleBy Deborah Mattinson, Founding Partner, BritainThinks.A view from across the pond; the lessons Americans can learn from recent British elections.
Opinion polls and electoral polls were subject to intense scrutiny and criticism in the wake of the 2016 experience, followed by renewed confidence in the first months of 2017. Polling firms are facing up to the current challenges and reports of the death of quantitative electoral forecasts are "greatly exaggerated".
Find out where government limits on polling threaten researchers ability to do their jobs from the latest global study.
This paper is a contribution by the WIN Network (international association gathering leading independent market research and polling firms in their respective countries), to discussions on changes in the polling industry. Drawing on feedback from one of its members (bva-group.com), which tracked the 2017 French presidential election using various sources of data (web listening, an online community, and polls collected via POP2017 public opinion platform), it also presents the results of an experiment conducted with two behavioral scientists at the Santa Fe Institute (USA). The purpose of this joint research, which was conducted during the French presidential campaign, was to better understand the factors ? particularly social bubbles ? that influence voters as well as measure the impact of fake news on public opinion.
The accuracy of polling has been under the serious spotlight over the last couple of years. This presentation will deliver some preliminary analysis from an international review of historical published polling data from 25 countries compiled by Kantar which will answer this question and also help market researcher understand better why polls don't always predict election results.
Speech from Kancho Stoychev, President, Gallup International Association, Bulgaria.
This paper is a contribution by the WIN Network (international association gathering leading independent market research and polling firms in their respective countries), to discussions on changes in the polling industry. Drawing on feedback from one of its members (bva-group.com), which tracked the 2017 French presidential election using various sources of data (web listening, an online community, and polls collected via POP2017 public opinion platform), it also presents the results of an experiment conducted with two behavioral scientists at the Santa Fe Institute (USA). The purpose of this joint research, which was conducted during the French presidential campaign, was to better understand the factors ? particularly social bubbles ? that influence voters as well as measure the impact of fake news on public opinion.
The accuracy of polling has been under the serious spotlight over the last couple of years. This paper is a summary of analysis conducted on an international database of 31310 polls from 473 elections and voting events across 40 countries around the world from 1936 to 2017 complied by Kantar.
Some would say that our industry started a century ago when in 1916 the Literary Digest ran the first national opinion poll among its readers, correctly predicting Woodrow Wilson as the next US President. The Digest correctly called the next four elections. How have we changed over the last hundred years and where will we be in the next hundred?
So, what does the world really think? New technologies are allowing researchers to rapidly and cost-effectively reach and engage citizens and consumers in places and ways previously unimaginable. This presentation will explore the results of "Ask the World", a joint initiative between ESOMAR and RIWI Corp. Based on questions submitted directly by the market research community, the project surveyed over 65,000 people in 60 countries and 30 languages on a variety of issues. It's a big world out there, or is it?
Imagine asking 20,000 Iranians about the future of their country - in 12 days; or people across Latin America about the Zika virus outbreak - within 24 hours of the WHO declaring it a global health emergency; or citizens in 51 countries about potentially highly divisive issues such as LGBTI rights. Welcome to the new era of Global Consumer and Citizen Voice. This session will be presented by Eric Meerkamper, President of RIWI, which collects people's opinions via an innovative online software called Random Domain Intercept Technology (RDIT) for global clients including Ericsson, Freedom House, MasterCard Foundation, Procter and Gamble, WalMart, and the World Bank. Initially used at the University of Toronto for global pandemic surveillance, RDIT has been applied to various consumer research objectives, as well to understanding and addressing global challenges such as: women's rights in ISIS influenced countries, mental health stigma, creating an Arctic sanctuary, women voting initiatives in Indonesia, youth optimism in sub-Sahara Africa, and many others. So, what do you want to ask the world?