When we talk about market research, we often forget that research as a whole encompasses great swathes of work done for social and political purposes. Indeed, in the US alone, research expenditure by government, social think tanks and universities almost doubles the size of the custom market. Social research in particular focuses less on people as consumers and more on them as people whose fundamental needs and desires require understanding if we are to improve the lot of the human condition. The benefits derived from this most basic function of research can be huge and intensely influential, far outweighing the cost of the research itself. In this issue, Jim Clifton reports on highly significant findings from the Gallup World Poll. His conclusion is that the primary human desire today is a good job - and that this has major consequences for the success or failure of cities and entire nations. This insight derives from a meticulous application of survey methodologies across the entire globe.
Opinion polls reflect the political situation and the economic development of countries. The diversity of both these conditions in Asia has led to an interesting range of situations.
Opinion pollsters enjoyed a remarkable spot in the limelight tracking polls are separate surveys conducted each night in the US presidential elections. Although the final results of the election were still unclear at the time of going to press with this issue, Larry Gold draw some conclusions as to the role the opinion polls played in this turbulent election.
This paper is based on research conducted in Russia during its transition to a more liberal economic and political system. The data cited are taken from VCIOM nationwide surveys and polls conducted in 1989-1997. Russia shares most common features of emerging markets, including a very narrow affluent segment; a thin layer of the would-be middle class; and a huge population which consumes cheap unbranded products. The specifics of the Russian market discussed include the situation when the bulk of purchasing capacity is concentrated in young cohorts, and the phenomenon of a state as the principal domestic client of research. There is a tendency among Russian consumers to declare preferences for locally produced products (mainly food) but this finds no correlation in the structure of the populationâs purchases. Consumer behaviour appears to be dependent on factors other than those of consumer ideology. Negative reactions towards advertising, considerably more pronounced in the older age groups, are being gradually transformed into more tolerant attitudes.
The paper examines current and future Internet usage in Europe. It discusses how the Internet is beginning to be used for data collection in market research and its benefits over other methods. More specifically it shows the results of Internet opinion polls conducted prior to the 1997 general election in the United Kingdom. Not only did these polls show exactly the same trends on conventional polls during the election period, but they also accurately predicted the final outcome. The results clearly support the likelihood that the Internet will become an established method of data collection of the future, although the representativeness of the sample for mainstream research is still an issue.
This paper is based on research conducted in Russia during its transition to a more liberal economic and political system. The data cited are taken from VCIOM nationwide surveys and polls conducted in 1989-1997. Russia shares most common features of emerging markets, including a very narrow affluent segment; a thin layer of the would-be middle class; and a huge population which consumes cheap unbranded products. The specifics of the Russian market discussed include the situation when the bulk of purchasing capacity is concentrated in young cohorts, and the phenomenon of a state as the principal domestic client of research. There is a tendency among Russian consumers to declare preferences for locally produced products (mainly food) but this finds no correlation in the structure of the populationâs purchases. Consumer behaviour appears to be dependent on factors other than those of consumer ideology. Negative reactions towards advertising, considerably more pronounced in the older age groups, are being gradually transformed into more tolerant attitudes.
This is a report about the use of polls on television at CBS News. A brief history traces the acceptance of polls during the early days of television in political and public affairs broadcasts. Polls began as an important source of information for documentary broadcasts. However, it was modern election coverage that led to establishing an in-house polling capability. After several years of polling only for CBS News broadcasts, a partnership was formed with The New York Times. This was the first of the joint media polls in the United States, and continues today as a successful venture.
Pre-elections polls have never before been so disqualified in Spain. It will need quite a few years of impeccable work and new favourable electoral conditions for the professional activity of public opinion researchers to recover the image and the respect that without any doubt they enjoy in other Western countries. The big national debate in Spain on Spain's staying in or leaving NATO became one of the biggest political storms imaginable, even to the point that many commentators remembered the old dichotomy of "the two Spains" (which has caused us Spaniards so many headaches throughout our history). Let us look at the development of Spanish public opinion on NATO, from the start of the post-Franco democratic period until the moment just before Spain's joining this organisation (1975-81).
The votes of slightly over 9,1 million Dutchmen for 2 out of 27 parties turned out different from what the samples of all pre-election surveys had told the researchers. All interest had been focussed on whether the governing coalition would keep or loose its small majority. The nearest any Dutch institute approached the actual vote was 75 out of 150 parliamentary seats. The voters gave the coalition partners 81 seats. Although there had been indications of "hidden strength" of the Christian Democrat coalition partner, only an "electronic" NIPO-survey late on the eve of election day detected clear indications of a last minute-swing toward that party. (It caused joy and rising share prices on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange immediately after its publication very early on May 21st. Several of the "hidden strength"-data will be presented. Finally we discuss some of the problems caused by the increasing effects of television electioneering.
This paper outlines the role and impact of opinion polls during the two years preceding the recent Irish Constitutional Referendum on divorce, and also in the final stages of the actual campaign. In doing so, it emphasises the relevance of professional interpretation of published polls and highlights the accuracy of the pre-referendum polls in detecting initial trends, and the subsequent swing towards a rejection of the amendment. Two primary factors which contributed to the final result - which are based exclusively on opinion poll findings - are also identified, and commented upon. Finally the paper aims to provide a response to the post-referendum charge of some Irish commentators who claimed that, again, the "polls got it wrong".
This contribution has three aims: 1. To determine the existing assumptions about possible negative influences of opinion polls. 2. To determine what can be said about these assumptions from the point of view of empirical social science. 3. To outline how other phenomena which have not been investigated yet might be dealt with in the future.