By recourse to our study on Dutch long distance travel we seek to illustrate how social research can be used to assist in the development of mathematical models for the purpose of forecasting transport flows.
A methodology is presented for analysing panel data for the purpose of measuring changes over time in travel mobility and identifying probable causes for such changes. Mobility is assumed to be a nebulous concept, referring to the general opportunity and ability to move about in satisfying activity needs and desires. The mobility experienced by an individual might be affected by changes in income, the location of residence or workplace, family structure, or the time and money costs of travel. Mobility analyses are central to an understanding of the role of transport in everyday life and should contribute to establishment of improved guidelines for forecasting the consequences of governmental policies.
The article aims at showing that public opinion, if not 'lawful', at least shows certain regularities that can be utilized in predicting shifts in opinion change. The argument is based on a French nation wide survey replicated five times since 1977 and covering a wide range of different opinions, the results of which were analyzed using classical factor analytic techniques. The results indicate that public opinion in any given year could be described in terms of four principle dimensions. After describing these dimensions and examining their stability over time, we suggest that changes in public opinion tend show a pendulum movement along each dimension and that awareness of this should enable us to predict future opinion shifts.
The paper presents the design and experience so far of a project aimed at the development of methods to estimate simultaneously changes in objective resources, the effect of these changes on the individual's or household's subjective perception of these changes. Throughout the project a differentiation is made between objective resources and the individual's subjective perception - or subjective resources. Young couples expecting their first child are selected to represent individuals subjected to change. The objective and subjective resource situation of the couples, as a couple and individually, are estimated before the arrival of the child and at two stages after its birth. A combination of cross-sectional and longitudinal measurements of 100 couples are employed. Overtime measurement methods have changed from personal unstructured interviews to mailed questionnaires and respondents' own registration of both hard and soft data.