The expert system RISCUE is developed to assist insurance managers to take decisions about the optimal risk strategy. RISCUE consists of a number of computer programs, combined with data on risk variables which are specific for the company or insurance company for which RISCUE has been developed. Assessment of the risk variables is always, by definition, a subjective estimate based upon personal expertise, know-how, experience and above all intuition. However, on both the operational and policy-making levels of any organisation, there is often a lot of know-how, experience and expertise available with regard to the risk factors. The problem is that this expert know-how is often not only spread throughout the entire organisation, but also lies âhiddenâ, e.g., is latent in the minds of the managers. Qualitative methods of research can be used to obtain this information. A specific procedure is developed to have a group of experts, (from the companiesâ management) estimate the probabilities of a damage (e.g. a catastrophy) in a particular period of time. This paper discusses the procedure followed to estimate the probabilities, which are later on inserted in the model as input variables. In the paper is also explained why and how some basic principles of the Delphi methodology are necessary to obtain the best results. Important side effects of the applied qualitative methods were also: a heightened risk consciousness on all management levels a more thorough risk analysis of the company, which is of strategic value for the company itself as well for the insurance companies. A simplified demonstration model will be used to illustrate the way of thinking.
The retailing sector because of its unique characteristics and its environment is in great need of information. This need is greater as the risk is greater. Small retailers are facing greater risks and, therefore, their need for information is also great. Retail Information Management Systems (RIMS) is an answer to information needs and risk management. RIMS has an internal and an external component. The internal component is composed of six separate information units. RIMS produces three different outputs, standard reports, answers to specific questions and special assessment and evaluation.
This paper sets out to show how a technique which was originally developed simply as a means of eliminating the fundamentally unacceptable product before it incurred substantial losses in test market, has shown itself to be capable of much more. The emphasis of the paper is on a series of case histories which illustrate the ability of micro-market testing to provide the basis of accurate volume estimates, to differentiate between price levels and to provide a speed of response and a degree of flexibility which would be beyond conventional test marketing. A second purpose of the paper is to demonstrate how a research technique which was originally developed for operation in the UK has been successfully transposed into a number of other national environments.