Abstract:

How will air traffic develop during the next twenty years? Aerospace companies all over the world are confronted with this question. This is also of interest to the ordinary citizen, because without air traffic many business and holiday destinations would become unreachable. Using scenario techniques - systematic methods of analysis and simulations - an interdisciplinary team has developed alternative scenarios for air traffic in the year 2015. These scenarios are not predictions, but represent conceivable future air traffic developments. Two highly conflicting scenarios are presented. Particular emphasis is placed on the interaction between the economy, politics, technology, environment and society. The practical experience of a passenger in the year 2015 is described. To conclude, suggestions are made as to how these scenarios should be used by the company and what chances they might offer. For this purpose an outline is given of how an early warning system based on the scenarios should be established so as to be able to detect any changes as early as possible and to assess their impact on the chosen scenario.