Economic forecasts with special reference to field studies

Date of publication: June 15, 1956

Author: Jan van Rees

Abstract:

I shall not specifically deal with economic forecasts of a general nature, but that I shall put the accent on market forecasts. It may well be reasoned that every market forecast presupposes a forecast of the business situation and of any expected structural changes in the economy, so that in fact both kinds of forecasts are inseparable. The fact is, however, that trends in consumer durable sales do not necessarily reflect the fluctuations in the state of the economy, although influences the price and the types of a product sold can be severely felt. It would, therefore, be necessary for a producer of durable consumer goods to determine the influence of the factors affecting his sales, whether of a specific business cycle nature or not. The relevant information can be obtained from many sources, and the more and the better it is,- and the better the ability to combine them and analyse them, the better the chance that the forecast will be correct. In other words both statistical research at the desk and field studies have to be used to arrive at forecasts that satisfy a company a need. I shall now deal with two methods of forecasting the first one concerns the what may be termed statistical forecast and the second one concerns the forecast based on the consumers intention to buy.

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