In recent years, the rise of the National Front party has been a major feature of the French political landscape. Understanding the drivers behind the electoral successes of that party is now crucial for mainstream parties if they want to counter it efficiently. This is no small task, as the vote for the National Front is difficult to estimate for pollsters. Our contribution shows how Open Data can help shed light on the question, by combining voting data with freely available administrative data sets. In particular, we address the important question of the link between turn out and the National Front vote. We show that simple correlations between the two are biased and we estimate the true link by econometric modelling, dealing with endogeneity.
Catalogue: Big Data World 2016: Understanding People Through Smart Data
Authors: Laurent FlorÃ¨s, Antoine Moreau
November 18, 2016
The death of polls?
Catalogue: Congress 2018
Author: Henri Wallard
Company: Ipsos MRBI
September 23, 2018
From brilliant to actionable
Catalogue: Congress 2011: Impact
Authors: Mark Garratt, Rafael Alcaraz, Steve Cohen
Company: In4mation insights
September 18, 2011
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