Econometric methods in forecasting sales of industrial products

Date of publication: June 15, 1964


There are of course considerable advantages in forecasting the sales of industrial products, whether for taking decisions regarding Investments (medium and long term) or the orientation of sales and production policy (short and medium term), but such forecasting is a far more difficult matter than the case with consumer goods. The difficulty lies chiefly with the heterogeneous character of the market, the Intermediate and sometimes speculative nature of the products, the difficulty df making comparisons with associated products, the competition between products, the replacement idiosyncrasies (In the case of durable goods) but above all with the rapidity of technical progress. In spite of these obstacles, the use of econometric methods for analysing and explaining phenomena and for working out forecasts may render considerable service, and has in fact already rendered it. An example of the application of econometric methods In the field of chemicals prospect for increase in the consumption of vinyl-polychloride in Spain.

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