A macro-simulation model of the cigarette market

Date of publication: June 15, 1989


In a computer model simulating the development of the cigarette market in dependance of demographic structures a life cycle approach to smoking behaviour pattern was used. The essential parameters of this model are the rate of habit formation up to 20 years of age, level of daily cigarette consumption of regular smokers, keep-up of smoking after age 40. These essential parameters, however, are influenced by pro smoking communication (marketing) and a set of interrelated macro-sociological variables: achievement orientation, work and life stress, post materialistic "green" values and anti- smoking pressure. The interrelations make for cyclical developments (log waves). The result on the cigarette market depends to a significant degree on the initial states, economic growth and political development. Pro-smoking communication can substantively moderate the trends. A simplified computer model in BASIC is available for further experimentation with these phenomena. Warning: It needs data input for parametrizing specific markets which are not sufficiently covered in most market research Publications.

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