Abstract:

This paper describes the background of a longitudinal study aimed at the development of a predictive model for the individual household's purchase behaviour concerning specific durable goods. Firstly, the setting of the problem is explained. Next, methodological, empirical, and theoretical contributions from a variety of studies which range from economic analyses of aggregated market demand to psychological studies of attitude-behaviour relationships, are discussed and are integrated into a conceptual model in which the household's purchase is a function of the household's situation, the household's anticipations, and changes in either of these two groups of variables. Then, a review of the selected variables is presented. Lastly, some results of preliminary surveys concerning the choice of a representative of the household to be interviewed, the choice of an interview-technique, and the response pattern through time of repeatedly interviewed panel members, are shown.