Abstract:

Predicting the future for a horizon that spans beyond 10 years is a complex and uncertain task, especially in volatile times when the world is facing unprecedented challenges such as climate change, geopolitical tensions and social unrest. In this paper, we explore the main difficulties and limitations of long-term forecasting methods and models, and we propose some ways to overcome them. We argue that predicting the future requires not only rigorous data analysis and scenario planning, but also creativity, imagination and participation. We suggest that foresight practitioners should adopt a more flexible and adaptive approach, and engage with diverse stakeholders and perspectives, to cope with the complexity and uncertainty of the future. This paper aims to provide a practical guide for market researchers, strategic planners and insights practitioners who face a similar challenge.