Abstract:

In the past "customers" of market research were above all Product Management and Board Members. Lately there has been an increasing demand by R&D. Due to increasing research costs, R&D is facing higher pressure for success. This is why there is an increased interest in market orientated research. As it takes about 10 years from finding an active ingredient until market introduction of a new product, research is mainly interested in long term market trends (i.e. Oct-15 years). Product Management and Board rather need market estimates for the next 01-Feb years. Market research can react in three different ways: 1. Don't give any answers: "We are not able to predict the future" (very little sucess, this would be interpreted as a lack of competence). 2. Do as if the market of tomorrow is identical to that of today (usual experience, but not very realistic) 3. Be creative. The following contribution illustrates how we have progressed with the Scenario technique at Schering.