Estimation method for media audience duplication

Date of publication: June 22, 2005


This paper describes a method for evaluating multimedia campaigns which consolidates the frequency distributions from the individual schedules of different media into a single distribution. This model is based on the fact that in the short term, specialized investigations of each media outlet provide higher-quality data 'media tactics' than do single-source ones. The upper limit of the combined estimation of the distribution of contacts is determined by random duplication, which implies that the hypothesis of independence between media consumption is assumed, although this is in fact a special case; the lower limit is the maximum value of the exposure distributions being consolidated. Within this interval, a space of possible solutions is defined. The ultimate solution is the one that has the highest probability of occurrence. Evidence from a large number of simulations indicates that this model consistently provides an acceptable solution to the urgent problem of evaluating media plans whose advertising campaign involves different media.

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