Abstract:

This paper develops NBD models and new evaluation methods for estimating the reach and frequency distribution. The models were developed in order to address the radio industry’s requirements of ‘flighting’ and schedule variation from week to week. The models are demonstrated to be valid and reliable. They are empirically evaluated using a new four-week audience survey and are shown to be effective over 52 weeks. The evaluation is based on 1) demonstration schedules developed by the radio industry and by the analyst; 2) station reach; and 3) an examination of the statistical distributions. The delivery of the new models and their acceptance and impact on the radio industry is discussed.