Abstract:

The philosophy behind the Delphi Technique for forecasting is to gather a group of experts all of whom have different perspectives on the issue being studied. Through a series of iterative surveys and discussions the learning of the group is supposed to simulate the learning of the marketplace or a society over time. Experience has found Delphi processes to be highly accurate in prediction of future market structure and events. However the process can require six months of time and a quarter of a million dollars of budget. This paper discusses the use of the Internet for conducting a Delphi process which reduces the amount of time required from twenty to twenty-six weeks in a traditional Delphi process to a mere five weeks for a Delphi process conducted via the Internet. Cost savings are also significant.