Abstract:

Forecasting of new pharmaceutical products is in the midst of a revolution. Good forecasts must increasingly control for the impacts of health outcomes research, market access, pricing, and promotional response on usage and sales. Fortunately, the forecasting state-of-the-art has advanced to the point where each of these factors can now be successfully and explicitly accounted for. When these related but previously distinct disciplines are fully integrated with new product forecasting, the result is the ability to help pharmaceutical companies anticipate and manage the volume, revenue, and profit implications of business decisions. These new capabilities are collectively called 'business outcomes modeling'