Abstract:

In 1993 B.V.A. and A.I.G.C. (Agro Industries et Grandes Cultures) pooled their experiences to offer their clients an economic observation during the 1st year of the CAP Reform. B.V.A. survey was conducted in 7 European countries. The sample was representative of the hectares of arable land and covered 86 % of the arable land of these countries. 2000 farmers were surveyed in order to collect details about the area of each crop they had sown or were going to grow and the amount of inputs they were going to apply on their main crops. The data about the crop rotation enabled B.V.A. to forecast the evolution of European areas for the different crops. From this sample, we selected some groups of farms very similar to the farms included the A.I.G.C. accounts panel.Using the data of the accounts stored by A.I.G.C., the data of B.V.A. survey and its investigation on the probable prices of the 1992/1993 season, A.I.G.C. drew up models of 1993 farm accounts in different regions of Europe. This new forecasting tool enabled 1993 crop rotation to be accurately assessed and the real economic consequences of the CAP Reforms derived from this simulation model.