Abstract:

On the basis of forecasts the United States were expected to introduce import restrictions for the protection of its home market. In this way the Japanese textile export could be deflected to the West-European markets, where the Hungarian exporters would be forced by the new competitor to take strategical decisions. The managers of the Hungarian textile industry sponsored the elaboration of a forecasting model, which 1. describes the process of the expectable events; 2. determines the values of the economic and marketing factors, where the process starts; 3. controls, if the Hungarian enterprises are capable to follow up the course of these factors and 4. to conceive and realise their new marketing strategy from the date of the appearance of the values until the European market situation is changing. The usefulness of the model has been verified by the past economical processes.