Abstract:

The model described here is intended to predict the effect of an advertising campaign on the breakdown of a market between brands. It applies to mass consumption repeat purchase products whose sales are strongly influenced by advertising and it is based on the competitive nature of the market: in fact in this case one cannot give an intrinsic value to the advertising campaign of a firm: its effectiveness is essentially a function of the campaigns run by other competing firms. To determine the effect of an advertising plan, this model of buying behaviour uses firstly a simulation model (Media-Planex) which involves the use of punched cards from an audience survey covering all advertising media and in particular giving the pattern of habits concerning each medium for each individual interviewed.