Navigating in a rough sea

Date of publication: September 14, 2003

Author: Franz Tessun


This paper shows the need for totally different thinking. There are three sectors of thinking: network thinking; future open thinking; and strategic thinking. Only the combination of these aspects of thinking can deal with the future in an efficient and economic way. This combination is necessary to make decisions in a complex and uncertain environment (navigating in a rough sea). Moreover, markets and customers are quickly changing and trends reveal that markets and demands will change increasingly quicker so that traditional decision making instruments will no longer work.Examples show how to handle various complex and uncertain decisive situations. One most difficult and challenging question is recognition of risks and crisis before competitors. An even more difficult question is how to find and use opportunities in the markets. These questions will be answered with an early warning system that will help to think in alternatives. One can 'fore think' opportunities and risks in the markets using a strategic early warning system. The systematic approach can be supported by the Future Scorecard, which is explained in detail in this paper.

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