Predictability of movie box office based on trailer testing

Date of publication: September 18, 2011

Abstract:

Neuroscience is increasingly being used as a diagnostic tool in helping marketers better understand consumer reactions to advertising, marketing, p ackaging, concepts and other marketing-relevant stimuli. However, little research has yet been conducted to determine the actual market validation of these measures. Research to date has been mainly anecdotal or focused around single events such as a package or advertising change. To advance this learning, EmSense has conducted the first large scale test on the value of neuroscience for assessing in-market predictive capability. This study was based upon more than 8,000 respondent tests, over twelve months. Working with advisors, Dr. Read Montague and David Weitzner, EmSense has devised a “real-world” test methodology to help understand the predictive nature of neuroscience in decision making. Results from this study indicate that neuroscience metrics enhance predictive accuracy over and above existing measures such as those collected in surveys.

W. Bryan Smith

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Keith Winter

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