Prediction techniques for advertising & circulation

Date of publication: June 15, 1972

Author: David Nicol

Abstract:

This paper discusses the uses of a number of forecasting techniques that have been investigated within IPC Magazines. Forecasts are required as part of one or more of the company's various planning processes which range from long term (up to five years) to short term (down to days). The techniques divide into two types: 1) identification and extrapolation of existing trends; 2) models describing cause and effect e. g. promotion, price increases, changes in advertisement volume following circulation changes. The methods are assessed within the context of the planning processes. Those used most frequently are seasonal adjustment, without which it is often impossible to identify a trend, and regression analysis to estimate parameters in marketing models. Emphasis is also placed on the need to provide the means for a manager to assess the Implications of a range of forecasts.

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