Abstract:

The main influence on gross press advertising revenue is the general health of the economy, as measured by GDP per capita. The same is not TRUE for TV. The size of the commercial audience on TV is limited both by the nature of the medium and by state legislative interference, in ways that don't affect press. For TV, the main influence on gross advertising revenue is the size of the actual commercial audience; GDP per capita is most closely correlated with the price charged in each country, ie. the cost per thousand gross impacts. In these circumstances it is difficult to see how changes in TV (of which there are many) can have a major effect on press revenues. The evidence from a number of countries over the last 10 years is that TV tends to be more complementary to press than competitive. Where press revenues fall on the introduction or expansion of commercial TV, it is as much due to general economic causes as to the introduction of TV itself, and tends to be very short-term. In general, real press revenues are more likely to rise than fall when TV expands.