Scenario development for corporate planning
The term scenario is familiar to those involved in forecasting, but too few people are aware of what exactly a scenario is, or how it can best be developed and applied. The author describes a method developed over several years in response to a need which most forecasting efforts have left unfulfilled. The method enables quantitative and qualitative forecasts to be combined in a manner which can be directly related to an organisations planning and decision-making processes, and which permits the evaluation of a companys objectives and performance in the light of those forecasts. The analysis of an organisations likely performance in given scenarios can, in turn, provide a basis for contingency planning.
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