Abstract:

The central thesis of this paper is that a perspective is needed in introducing new products and services in "hot areas" such as high technology. Artificial Intelligence has been around since the mid-1950s, but has remained largely an academic research pursuit. Then in the 1980s, its best-known subfield, expert systems (ES) --more correctly: knowledge-based systems-- came into its own with high expectations. But predicted growth rates of around 60% per annum soon gave way to pessimistic scenarios of small increases in revenue from commercial applications. Neither the optimists nor the pessimists proved to be right. As we enter the 1990s, the market is nearing $200 million/year in the USA