Abstract:

In recent years, the Delphi technique has become one of the most widely used qualitative forecasting approaches. However, relatively little has been written about the validity of the situational factors which are likely to influence the outcome of a Delphi forecast. This paper reviews the literature on this topic briefly and reports on the findings of a Delphi study on the future of tourism to Scotland. Its focus is not on the forecast which was generated by the Delphi study, but on the factors influencing the forecast itself.