Abstract:

In the field of marketing, a prediction is only of value if it has a practical use and this is dependent upon the following concepts: 1.The suppositions underlying the prediction are clearly defined, and; 2. they are realistic. These points are well known. However the main problem of prediction is to find suppositions which are realistic and which occur often enough in the real world to be of value. From the study of numerous instances of new product launches, a special type of prediction relating to new products has been developed by the Attwood Group of Companies arid is the subject of this joint paper. The basis of this technique is the analysis of purchasing histories of members on a consumer panel. When a new product is launched, the following types of questions are usually asked: 1. What percentage of the population will buy the product in a period, say a month, at this time next year?; 2. What will be its brand share, at that time ? The first part of this paper, my contribution, deals with the first point. The second part, developed by my collegue Mr. Dennis, deals with the latter point. In it we intend to demonstrate how, with the analysis of consumer panel data, it is possible to give answers to these questions both accurately and sufficiently quickly after the introduction of the new brand, to ensure that valuable information on its future success is obtained at the earliest possible time. The statistical methods used for both parts of the paper are different and fully independent.