The relevance of expectations in predicting behaviour and moods

Date of publication: September 1, 1992

Abstract:

The present paper will discuss the relevance of several rational and other apparently irrational indicators in making forecasts for individual markets, in other words, the relevance of the plans, desires, moods and expectations expressed by consumers in the interview. Trends based on these factors will be compared with the actual trends in ownership data, also ascertained by our surveys. This comparison has enabled us to develop several methods for making forecasts solely on the basis of easily manipulable aggregate data. In addition, questions concerning the psychological climate in specific markets will be analyzed, focusing on the issue of whether they provide an early indication of new modes of behavior, and thus of new areas that may be approached in advertising, and on the extent to which this applies. Finally, we shall examine economic forecast indicators derived from representative surveys. The studies presented demonstrate that while subjective assessments made by consumers may seem unprofessional, they are in fact highly significant.

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